Master Talks Hot Topics:
Continuing from yesterday, I actually think Old Powell is quite objective and responsible; it's just that the market always wants him to be the savior. But why should he care about so much? He focuses on the economy and inflation, and he does it quite well.
I can only say that neither Zhuan Zi nor Old Powell is wrong; they just stand in different positions. Who knows? Maybe they are hiding in a villa drinking red wine and chatting.
Trump pounded the table and said: 'Powell, I'll be the bad guy!' Powell smiled and replied: 'Trump, how can I bear to let you take it all on alone?' We retail investors are too far from the source of information, foolishly arguing over who is right and wrong, while they might be laughing at us.
Back to Bitcoin, it's been fluctuating between 83K and 87K for almost five weeks. This recent decline has finally allowed everyone to catch their breath and think about the next steps. The fluctuations are nearing their peak, and with the US stock market closed tonight, both bulls and bears are about even.
Personally, I still lean towards bearish. Recently, it has been rising slowly for several hours, but when it drops, it happens in just a few minutes. The big movements are all squeezed into the night. The market needs to wear down everyone's long and short positions before it decides which way to go.
In the medium term, I personally think 74K is the bottom. BlackRock has bought more than 30 million dollars worth of Bitcoin, increasing their position for three consecutive days, and stablecoins are starting to flow in. If it drops below 83K, bears will still have the upper hand. But if it really breaks through 87K, we will see a one-sided rebound.
Additionally, looking at the data is quite interesting. There are over 680 million long positions waiting to be liquidated around 82K to 83K, and over 2 billion short positions waiting to be blown up around 86.5K. So the market will likely poke around this range, and the longer the consolidation, the less likely it is to be a bad thing for the future trend.
Master Looks at Trends:
Resistance Level Reference:
First Resistance Level: 86000
Second Resistance Level: 85100
Support Level Reference:
First Support Level: 84500
Second Support Level: 83900
Today's Suggestions:
Bitcoin is currently in sideways consolidation and has formed a triangular convergence pattern. As it approaches the end of the triangle, it will choose a direction to break out. The longer the sideways period, the greater the volatility at the breakout.
The first resistance at 85.1K is a key resistance level in the upward process. The second resistance at 86K was tested recently but couldn't break through. If it tests again today, along with the previous selling pressure being digested, the probability of a breakthrough will be higher.
To maintain a bullish trend in the short term, the first support at 84.5K must hold. If it drops below, it will fall out of the lower edge of the triangle convergence, and the downside will turn into resistance.
The second support at 83.9K is the support level at the bottom of the range. So if it drops to 83.9K, the time to test the high points will be extended, but this position is also a risk-reward balanced zone.
Currently, the short-term upward trend line seems stable, and we can set the trend line and the lower moving average as gradual support, waiting for the price to test 85.1K again.
April 18 Master: Pre-embedded Wave Band:
Long Entry Reference: Not currently referenced
Short Entry Reference: Light short position in the range of 85500-86000; Target: 84500-83900
