Author: Bitcoin Hunter
As a KOL deeply involved in the crypto space for many years, I observe that the current cryptocurrency market is undergoing an unprecedented paradigm shift. The traditional four-year bull-bear cycle theory has been broken, with institutionalization, narrative iteration, and macro policies reshaping market logic. The following analysis will unfold from four dimensions: historical patterns, cycle changes, characteristics of the new order, and response strategies.
1. Traditional Cycle Review: The Underlying Logic of the Four-Year Cycle
Since its inception, Bitcoin has generally exhibited a 'four-year bull-bear cycle', with core driving factors including:
1. Halving Effect: Bitcoin's block reward halves approximately every four years, driving prices up through supply contraction. After halving in 2012 and 2016, Bitcoin rose 80 times and 20 times respectively, but the issuance reduction in the 2024 halving is only 6.25%, significantly weakening its price stimulus effect.
2. Narrative Resonance: Each bull market is accompanied by the emergence of new narratives, such as smart contracts in 2017, DeFi and NFTs in 2021, creating a 'rising tide lifts all boats' effect.
3. Retail Dominance: Grassroots funds drive the market, with retail investors achieving excess returns through early investments in altcoins.
However, the market after 2024 has subverted this model. Institutional funds have entered the market on a large scale through Bitcoin ETFs, with net inflows reaching $35 billion in 2024 and expected to exceed $70 billion in 2025, completely altering the flow of funds and market structure.
2. Cycle Changes: The Failure of Old Patterns and the Rise of New Orders
1. Core Reasons for the End of the Four-Year Cycle
Weakening Halving Effect: The impact of halving on supply and demand is diminishing, with price volatility significantly lower than historical levels after the 2024 halving.
ETF Reshaping Fund Logic: Traditional financial capital flows into Bitcoin ETFs in a one-way direction, forming a closed loop of 'institution → Bitcoin', weakening the wealth transmission effect between Bitcoin and altcoins. Bitcoin's dominant position is expected to remain at 63% in 2025, far higher than the 40% during the altcoin season in 2021.
Macroeconomic Policy Dominance: Federal Reserve interest rate policies, geopolitical conflicts (e.g., U.S.-China tariff war), and regulatory dynamics (e.g., EU MiCA legislation) have become core variables of short-term volatility.
2. Characteristics of the New Order
Institutionalization and Polarization: Bitcoin has become a consensus vehicle for 'digital gold', with institutions like MicroStrategy increasing their holdings, while altcoins need to rely on new narratives like AI and DePIN to attract funds.
Volatility Short Cycle: The duration of bull markets is shortening; for example, in 2024, meme, AI, and on-chain hot spots rotated for only 1-3 months, with profit effects concentrated in fast-entry and fast-exit strategies.
Changes in Risk Structure: Frequent black swan events such as the collapse of centralized exchanges (e.g., Bybit was hacked for $1.5 billion) and stablecoins losing their peg have intensified market fragility.
3. 2025 Market Outlook: Divergence and Opportunities Coexist
1. Bull Market Continuation Faction
Institutional Bullish Logic: Firms like Bernstein and Standard Chartered predict Bitcoin will hit $200,000 in 2025, primarily based on sustained ETF inflows, loose regulations from the Trump administration, and enterprise-level allocation demands (e.g., MicroStrategy's increased holdings).
Liquidity Support: The rebound in global M2 growth and the potential for Federal Reserve rate cuts may provide liquidity premiums for crypto assets.
2. Bear Market Warning Faction
Technical Signals: The MVRV ratio of long-term Bitcoin holders has dropped to a cycle low, DEX trading volume has shrunk by 80%, and market activity has drastically decreased.
Macroeconomic Headwinds: Pressure from U.S. stock market adjustments, geopolitical conflicts, and regulatory uncertainties may trigger a wave of capital withdrawal.
3. Neutral Inference
The market may enter a 'volatile differentiation period': Bitcoin relies on institutional funds to maintain high volatility (between $80,000 and $120,000), while altcoins may only have the opportunity to start a full altcoin season after Bitcoin's dominance falls below 50%.
4. Survival Rules: Five Strategies for Survival of the Fittest
1. Embrace Bitcoin's Core Position: Allocate no less than 50% of the portfolio to Bitcoin, use ETF tools to reduce volatility risk, and pay attention to the miner shutdown price (currently around $78,000) as a bottom signal.
2. Target New Narrative Hotspots: AI, DePIN, RWA, and other sectors still have explosive potential, requiring on-chain data monitoring of fund flows, such as meme coins in the Solana ecosystem and social finance applications of the TON blockchain.
3. Flexible Take-Profit and Stop-Loss: Set a profit target of over 50% and strictly implement it to avoid falling into the 'paper wealth' trap.
4. Diversification Hedge: Allocate 20%-30% of assets to stablecoins, gold ETFs, or government bonds to withstand extreme volatility.
5. Focus on Policy Turning Points: The implementation of the EU MiCA in June 2025, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in September, and the results of the U.S. presidential election may become key nodes for trend reversal.
Bitcoin Hunter Summary
The crypto space has transitioned from the 'wild west era' to the 'institutional infinite era', and the experiences of the old cycle may become shackles for the new cycle. Only by breaking cognitive boundaries and dynamically balancing between Bitcoin's stability and the explosiveness of altcoins can one navigate through bull and bear markets. As the big player Michael Saylor said: 'Investing in Bitcoin is like buying digital Manhattan, every day is a good day.'