#鲍威尔发言 Powell's Speech: Policy Direction at the Economic Crossroads

Recently, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech has stirred up a storm in the financial world. In the face of increasing economic uncertainty, every word he says influences market direction.

Powell explicitly pointed out that current economic data, such as sticky inflation and weak consumption, are insufficient to support interest rate cuts, and that we must wait for 'clearer signals' before adjusting policies, emphasizing that the policy stance is 'moderately restrictive and good,' and that the balance sheet reduction process will not stop in the short term. He also warned that Trump's tariff policy might lead to stronger sticky inflation, and the Federal Reserve may face a dilemma between suppressing inflation and supporting the economy. Additionally, Powell publicly warned for the first time that the U.S. federal debt is on an unsustainable path, and long-term fiscal pressures could constrain monetary policy space.

This speech reinforced the 'hawkish wait-and-see' stance, highlighting data dependency, but also complicated the policy path due to multiple factors.