#持有SCDO未来星辰大海
Bitcoin
(BTC/USDT) – Complete Technical Analysis - Time Frame: 1D #BTC
Market Structure and SMC (Smart Money Concept)
✅ Confirmed CHoCH (Change of Character) from the 105K top → Currently at a lower high in the 88K region.
📉 Downward break structure (BOS) occurred at 91K.
🟠 Bearish Order Block (OB): 86K–88K (price is currently reacting here).
Liquidity Levels:
Sellers: Swept at 76K
Buyers: Above 88K
Fair Value Gap (FVG): Unfilled area between 81K–82K may act as price magnet.
ICT Model Alignment
Judas Swing: Sharp liquidity grab below 76K → Subsequent bounce — classic manipulation before real movement.
PD Array Setup:
Resistance: 88K (Bearish OB + Buyer Liquidity)
Support: 81K (Discount Area + FVG)
Elliott Wave Outlook
Wave 1: July–September 2024
Wave 3: November 2024–February rising to 105K (Extended Wave)
Wave 4: Correction to 76K may be complete
Wave 5 Target: If structure holds, potential to reach 115K+
Fractal Observation
🔹 Current price structure mimics the pattern from November 2023–January 2024
🔹 If history rhymes: Consolidation → Breakout → Retest → Parabolic Rise
Key Levels to Watch
🔼 Bullish Confirmation: Daily close above 88K → Target 92K–100K
🔽 Bearish Rejection: Break below 81K → Next support at 74K–76K
Strategy Summary
🔹 Short-term Bias: Cautiously Bullish
🔹 Entry Area: Retest near 82K (FVG + OB)
🔹 Stop Loss: Below 79.5K
🔹 Take Profit Area: 88K → 92K → 98K
📈 Risk Reward = Minimum 1:5 (Highly Consistent)
Focus on higher time frame closes and manage risk. Liquidity traps are in play.
BTC Price Analysis#鲍威尔发言
