Advisor's discussion on hot topics:
Speaking of which, Powell was really tough last night, directly stating: 'Don't expect us to step in to save the market!' He also emphasized that the Fed won't be led around by political pressure.
Doesn't this sound like openly challenging Chuanzi? Chuanzi is probably furious, and the advisor thinks he really should fire Powell and bring in someone more obedient. What good is it to keep such a person? Just causing trouble!
As soon as Powell opened his mouth last night, the market immediately wilted. Why? The advisor mentioned before that the core of the market's sharp decline is the strong policy uncertainty, combined with expectations constantly being dashed.
The tariff issue has made people anxious; at this time, it can only be solved by tariff policy itself. The Fed's interference is useless. As for what the Fed will do next, it depends on the situation after the tariffs take effect in early April. What's inflation like? How's the economy?
Wasn't the Fed board member Waller saying the night before last that if tariffs are only 10%, inflation won't react much, and the economy is slowing a bit, there's a chance for rate cuts? But if a major shock occurs, Powell could cosplay as a white knight, not only cutting rates but possibly playing big, like buying assets and expanding the balance sheet.
As for balance sheet reduction, it will definitely stop by the end of Q2 or at the latest in Q3 (Powell will certainly insist on calling it 'pause'), these people have a consistent playbook of suppressing the market first, not letting you get too excited too early.
If they call for rate cuts now, there won't be much surprise when it actually happens. So Powell is tough this time, which makes the advisor feel that previous speculations: rate cuts in May and June still have hope. It's just a deliberate show of strength to establish the Fed's authority.
Back to Bitcoin, the short-term peak is around 86.8k, and Ethereum at 1688 is the short-term ceiling. The closer the rebound is to these two points, the better for short positions. Just yesterday, the advisor noted a short position in the 85400 range in a public article; at dawn, it only reached about 85450, accurately securing over 2000 points!
The current market fundamentals are bearish; it's just a matter of time before it crumbles. A significant rise entirely depends on news to save it. Gold is at a new high, bond yields are at new highs, tariffs are hot, the dollar is depreciating, and the three major U.S. stock indices have all crossed death cross.
The peaks of Bitcoin and Ethereum may not seem far apart, but without significant news supporting them, they can't break through. The current volatility is small, and Ethereum looks quite strong, which is because Bitcoin is fluctuating sideways. Once Bitcoin drops below 83k with volume, Ethereum will definitely break below 1500.
The recent decline in the crypto market is not just its own business; unless Trump cancels the trade war or Powell cuts rates early, don't even think about a significant rise soon. So the advisor has been closely monitoring tariffs and Trump's movements, which is the dealer's clear signal.
Advisor's view on trends:
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 85000
Second resistance level: 84400
Support level reference:
First support level: 83200
Second support level: 82700
Today's suggestion:
First of all, from a technical perspective, if the current high point cannot be broken, the trend may continue to reverse, and there will be more profit-taking sales in the short term.
Currently, the short-term resistance is at the overlapping position of the 60-day and 120-day moving averages, which is around 84.4k. If it continues to rise, it must break through this range to maintain the black trend line above on the hourly level.
The first support at 83.2k is currently a key position, as it held this low point during yesterday's sharp drop. If it breaks here again, there may be disappointed selling, increasing the probability of further declines.
4.17 Advisor's band strategy:
Long entry reference: not currently referenced.
Short selling entry reference: light short in the 86000-86800 range. Target: 85000-84400-83200.
