$BTC could be about to break all expectations, not due to empty speculation, but because of hard data. Despite the very unstable global economic climate, the renowned economist Timothy Peterson has suggested that Bitcoin could climb to 138,000 dollars in just three months. The surprising thing is that his analysis is based on a statistical correlation that has not been seen before between Bitcoin and the US dollar, making the forecast even more intriguing and worth following closely.
In his latest analysis published on April 18, Peterson presented a projection based on the behavior of the effective yield of the US High Yield index, which currently exceeds 8%. From historical data since 2010, he detected that every time these conditions have occurred, Bitcoin has had a positive performance in 71% of cases within a three-month period, with an average gain of 31%. Even in negative scenarios, the losses were quite limited, not exceeding 16%.
The most interesting aspect of this outlook is that, according to Peterson, based on this trend, it is very possible that Bitcoin will move between 75,000 and 138,000 dollars in the next 90 days. This would imply that Bitcoin would need to climb approximately 62% to reach that ceiling, something that would seem crazy to many, but makes a lot of sense in this context. The crypto community is already starting to get excited about the idea that a new bullish wave similar to that of early 2021 is approaching.
It is worth noting that Peterson has been a consistent analyst in this field and has contributed to several projections about the future of Bitcoin. One of his most well-known tools, the so-called Lowest Price Forward, assigned a 95% probability that Bitcoin would not fall below 69,000 dollars in March. This type of model has given some credibility to his estimates, which are now generating conversation among investors and enthusiasts again.
Another point that adds strength to his prediction is the current correlation between Bitcoin and the DXY, the index that measures the strength of the US dollar against other currencies. In 2024, both assets began to behave very similarly, which is atypical, as they have historically been inversely proportional. Peterson explains that this is not due to a direct causality, but because both the dollar and Bitcoin are reacting to the same macroeconomic tensions: low liquidity, high real rates, and widespread fear of risk.
This phenomenon could be temporary, according to the economist, who believes that Bitcoin will eventually decouple from the behavior of the dollar. When that happens, and real yields begin to fall, Bitcoin could be strongly propelled by the return of liquidity to the system. In fact, many analysts are already beginning to point out that the weakening of the dollar could directly benefit the crypto asset, just as it did at the beginning of the bullish run in 2023.
The DXY has remained below the psychological barrier of 100 points, according to data from Cointelegraph and TradingView, marking levels that had not been seen in almost three years. This structural weakness, combined with the trade uncertainty in the United States, opens the door for Bitcoin to position itself as a safe haven amid the chaos. Increasingly, conditions seem to align for the world's most famous digital asset to regain prominence.
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