Powell is going to speak again tonight.

This is the first time he has taken the stage since the retaliatory tariffs were implemented. The market has begun to stir since last night, even Wall Street analysts have started to bet on this round. Among the old men in the Federal Reserve, the 'doves are rising'.

Uncle San also believes that this 'hawk-dove battle' is a watershed moment tonight. If Powell softens his tone, the market will sound the counterattack horn; but if he remains stubborn, it won't just be a bearish issue, but the market will directly face problems.

Bitcoin has been hovering below 84000 all day, with 83000 points support being repeatedly tested. The energy accumulated over the past two days has been wasted all day long. The market has provided enough opportunities, but the bulls just can't stand up.

To put it bluntly:

Tonight, Powell will nail it down; whether the market lives or dies depends entirely on his words.

If you say it soft enough, the market can still hold up the technical repair. If you stay stubborn, then be prepared to welcome the loss of 83000, witnessing the waterfall of new lows together across the network.

This probability, Uncle San now says: 50-50. But I lean towards the bullish victory.

But even so, Uncle San insists on one core judgment:

The darkest moment has passed.

At this position, a drop is chips, and a rise is a problem. No matter how much the market oscillates, even if there is another wave hitting the previous low, it is still an opportunity we are prepared to catch.

The market has to go through another wave of tearing before washing out the unsteady ones. Truly smart money never waits for the whole network to be bullish before entering the market.

Looking at the policy side, Trump today simply slammed the gas pedal, pushing tariffs on China to 245%, like playing a child's war game.

But the response on the domestic side is exceptionally calm; even the official statements have not said much - the routines have long been understood, and we are too lazy to engage in the digital games.

If Trump's goal is just 'data victory', then he is indeed doing well. If he can really hold out for three months, then in this segment of history, he truly deserves a special edition 'Tariff God of America'.

But the market is not acting, the data will not deceive you.

On the funding side, yesterday Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of 76.4 million USD, which is one of the largest single-day inflows in the short term. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of 14.2 million USD, indicating that faith in ETH has not yet returned, but BTC's large holders are already gathering openly.

The giants on the chain are accumulating, and ETF funds are also warming up simultaneously. Smart money is choosing positions, not waiting for the 'news to drop' which is a tedious routine.

They know that now is the window period for long-term entry; even if Trump is still messing around, even if negotiations are filled with uncertainty, the price has already priced in the risks.

Today in the Q group, I saw some friends saying they want to increase their positions in the value of the altcoin that has been locked up.

Uncle San just wants to say one thing:

If you think you can regain your self-esteem by adding positions, you have already lost.

The market does not reward emotional compensation; it only recognizes direction and execution.

Uncle San has said countless times that there is no cycle in this market that doesn't yield profits; only misguided 'god operations'.

Do you remember the extreme sealing battle from a while back?
When the bullish market trend hit him in the face, he did not hesitate at all and cut his losses cleanly. At that moment, it was not about losing or not losing money, but about execution determining his survival.

Finally, Uncle San reminds:

After Powell's speech tonight, the market will express itself quickly; don't wait for the market to make a choice before taking action.

BTC focuses on the gain or loss at 83000, ETH is oscillating at the edge, and SOL has completed its correction; pay attention to the on-chain sentiment shift.

Real trading does not rely on fantasy, nor does it rely on stubbornness; it relies on judgment + reaction + decisiveness;

The initiative in the market is never handed over; it's about whether you dare to reach out and take it back.

BTC: Bitcoin started a sudden downward turn in the hourly chart last night, with the 15-minute short-term chart continuing to decline, breaking down after the bullish sentiment support established at 84000 points was pierced. There has been no market fluctuation after that; the trading volume below 84000 points has shown no significant changes. This means that after testing the short-term bullish sentiments upward to 86000 points, it directly retreated to the low point of a minor counterattack, failing the first round of rebound. After that, the bottom at 83000 points will again become a focus for our short-term market; maintaining this position upwards means the market is in a balanced state. If it breaks down, the 81000 points four-hour rebound starting point will likely be touched, and the market will enter a short-term risk phase. However, the daily level bullish oscillation rebound sentiment has not changed significantly during the day; the time frame given by Uncle San before this oscillation period is within this quarter. From a horizontal cycle perspective, the bullish accumulation phase should be rationally viewed with each surge and retreat.

ETH: Ethereum is linked to Bitcoin, maintaining silence until there is an independent market.

Altcoin part: Focus on bottom-fishing priority public chains (like SOL, feel free to keep an eye on it when it pulls back), additionally, one thing was missed: the holding weight of platform tokens can be appropriately increased, as the rebound of platform tokens often leads between major market movements. When the market is in a significant downturn, platform tokens tend to be more stable. The overall trend of SOL, SUI, DOGE, and PEPE mentioned yesterday still seems to be stabilizing positively. Adding a small sector of early leading memes, the inflow of funds during the day will be more apparent, and other discussions can take place in the comments.

The fear and greed index is 29 today.

Finally, stay away from leverage, and stock up on spot!