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Two major events to watch for recently: Retail sales data will be released later, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak at 1:30 AM tomorrow (Thursday).

Regarding Bitcoin's price trend, it recently broke through its trend, reaching a high of 86,500, filling the CME gap from April 3, before retreating to around 83,000 after the US stock market opened. There is support at 81,200 - 83,000, with active trading at 84,500. If it falls below 83,000, the breakthrough may fail.

From the perspective of market trading indicators, the daily chart has broken the downward trend since the beginning of the year; there are many short positions at 87,000, and bullish pressure is significant, with a heavy liquidation wall at 81,200 - 83,500. Since April 11, bulls have taken control of the derivatives market. Although the spot ETF saw net inflows for two consecutive days, the scale was small, and CoinBase continued to show negative premiums. US investors are not active, but MicroStrategy and Japan's Meta Planet Company have purchased 3,459 and 319 Bitcoins, respectively.

Whale and holder data indicate that the 365-day moving average for the top ten Bitcoin inflows into address B is rising, with whales becoming more active, and the 30-day moving average declining, suggesting selling pressure may be easing. The total inflow over the past 30 days has decreased by over $3 billion, with whales and long-term holders accumulating coins. Holding for over 155 days classifies as long-term holders, and some entrants from early November will be included, pushing the average price line higher. The 365-day moving average at 76,000 is the bottom, and there may be a third wave of chip distribution in the future.

Currently, although Bitcoin is rising, market sentiment is sluggish, and interest from new retail investors is lacking. Unlike past bull markets with a massive influx of short-term capital, this round has low volatility and low enthusiasm. This is primarily due to changes in the macro environment, with high Federal Reserve interest rates leading to tight liquidity and reduced capital preferences; as well as changes in market structure, with institutions dominating after the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, and altcoins performing poorly, with only 3 out of 27 new coins listed on Binance yielding positive returns, leading retail investors to exit the market.

In terms of market trends, the behavior of long-term Bitcoin holders is an important reference. A halt in selling followed by renewed selling indicates a new round of price increases. On April 9, 2025, 48,575 Bitcoins flowed into accumulation addresses, marking the largest single-day inflow since February 1, 2022, valued at $3.6 billion. It is normal for some large holders to take profits at high points, and dominant capital remains in the market.