#加拿大推出SolanaETF I. Bitcoin (BTC)
1. Current technical aspects
• Price range: currently at $83,389, intraday fluctuation range of $83,786-85,500, short-term key support level of $83,000, resistance level of $85,500-86,000.
• Technical signals:
o 4-hour MACD momentum weakened, RSI (67) close to overbought, price and indicator diverged, there is a risk of false breakout;
o Daily EMA moving average is long but price deviates, if it falls below $83,000, it may trigger a programmatic sell-off, with the target of $80,000.
2. Bullish and bearish scenarios
• Bullish scenario (35% probability): If it stabilizes at $83,000 and is accompanied by an increase in trading volume (more than $30 billion per day), it may rebound to test $85,500-86,000, and extreme market conditions may reach $87,500.
• Bearish risk (65% probability): If it falls below $83,000, it will accelerate the correction to $80,000-81,200. If the S&P 500 falls below the support of 4,180 points, it may be linked to a second bottoming out.
3. Operation suggestions
• Long order: After stabilizing near $83,000, try long with a light position, target $84,500-85,500, stop loss $82,000;
• Short order: Short under pressure after rebounding to $85,500-86,000, target $83,000-80,000, stop loss $86,500.
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II. Ethereum (ETH)
1. Current technical aspects
• Price range: Currently reported at $1,592, support level $1,580-1,600 (on-chain pledge liquidation threshold), resistance level $1,650-1,700.
• Technical signals:
o 4-hour KDJ is oversold (91) but MACD is below the zero axis, rebound demand and short pressure coexist;
o ETH/BTC exchange rate hit a record low (0.019), and the trend of funds flowing to Bitcoin has not changed.
2. Long and short scenario deduction
• Bullish scenario (25% probability): If the linked Bitcoin stabilizes at $1,600 and breaks through $1,650, the target will be $1,700-1,750 (the ETH/BTC exchange rate needs to be repaired to above 0.021);
• Bearish risk (75% probability): Falling below $1,580 will trigger a forced liquidation of 68,000 ETH, accelerating the decline to $1,450-1,380, and the extreme market may hit the low point in 2024.
3. Operation suggestions
• Long order: Short long after a long lower shadow appears at $1,580-1,600, target $1,650, stop loss $1,550;
• Short order: Short when it rebounds to $1,650-1,700 and stagflation occurs, target $1,530-1,450, stop loss $1,750.
$BTC $ETH