ETH falls below $1,600! Key support lost, short-term risks intensify?
1. Latest price dynamics: Break downwards, market sentiment turns cold.
Early this morning, ETH rapidly fell and broke the key support level of $1,600, hitting a low of $1,599.65, with an intraday decline of 1.32%. Although it rebounded to around $1,660 during the morning session, it quickly fell back, and the current price is weakly fluctuating around $1,610, significantly underperforming Bitcoin (ETH/BTC exchange rate dropped to a historical low of 0.0191).
2. Technical analysis: Key support repeatedly tested, bearish signals intensify.
Form indicators: A long upper shadow candlestick has appeared repeatedly on the daily chart, indicating severe selling pressure above, the $1,600 support level has been tested multiple times, MACD is about to form a death cross, and the KDJ indicator is retreating from high levels, short-term technical outlook is bearish.
Key range: If it cannot stabilize above $1,600 during the day, it may further test $1,580 or even the psychological level of $1,500; resistance above is concentrated in the $1,640-$1,650 range, requiring a volume breakout to relieve downward pressure.
3. News and fund movements: Institutional interest is insufficient, on-chain data is weak.
ETF fund stagnation: Ethereum spot ETF fund inflows remain low, with zero inflows for products like Grayscale ETHE, and institutional willingness to allocate to ETH is clearly weaker than that for Bitcoin.
Low on-chain activity: Gas fees remain low at 15-20 Gwei, DeFi total value locked (TVL) has only slightly rebounded, on-chain transaction volume and new address counts show no signs of explosive growth, lacking fundamental catalysts.
Market focus shift: Bitcoin's dominance (62.2%) remains high, with funds more inclined towards the risk-averse BTC, while altcoins are generally under pressure.
4. Market sentiment and operational suggestions.
Current market sentiment is neutral to cautious (Fear and Greed Index at 57), and ETH faces two major risks in the short term:
Bitcoin correlation pullback: If Bitcoin loses the support of $83,000, it may drag ETH further down.
Leverage liquidation pressure: There are a large number of leveraged positions near $1,600 for ETH, and a break may trigger a chain liquidation.
Operational strategy (for reference only):
Short term: If it rebounds to $1,640-$1,650 and faces resistance, consider lightly shorting with a target of $1,580 and a stop-loss at $1,670.
Medium to long term: Pay attention to the strong support area around $1,500; if it stabilizes and shows a strong bullish candle, consider gradual accumulation aiming for a rebound to $1,700.
Risk warning: Strict stop-loss (suggested within 3%), avoid increasing positions against the trend!
