#比特币与美国关税政策

Let’s revisit the progress over this period

📈 Deep analysis of Trump's new tariff policy and Bitcoin market dynamics

Policy Background

On April 10, local time, former U.S. President Trump proposed a "differentiated tariff policy": imposing a 125% punitive tariff on certain countries, while suspending high tariffs for eligible countries for 90 days (only retaining a 10% basic tariff). This proposal has been interpreted by the market as a political strategy to "reshape the global trade landscape."

Market Logic Breakdown

1️⃣ The value of safe-haven assets is highlighted

• The escalation of tariff disputes exacerbates the credit risk of the U.S. dollar, with Bitcoin being accumulated by institutions as a non-sovereign asset for hedging

• Gold and Bitcoin rose simultaneously, but the latter's 8% daily increase significantly outperformed traditional safe-haven assets

2️⃣ Monetary policy expectation game

• High tariffs may increase inflationary pressure in the U.S., forcing the Federal Reserve to delay the tapering process

• Crypto analyst Arthur Hayes predicts: global central banks may be forced to restart QE in 2024, with Bitcoin becoming the main recipient of liquidity overflow

3️⃣ Acceleration of compliance process

• Policy uncertainty drives cross-border capital to allocate assets through compliant crypto channels (such as BiyaPay)

• The direct trading model of USDT with U.S. stocks/Hong Kong stocks saw a 37% increase in weekly trading volume, reflecting market demand for hedging

Data Observation and Strategy Recommendations

• On-chain data: In the past 7 days, the net outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges reached 210,000 coins, with whale addresses holding the highest amount year-to-date

• Technical aspect: $83,000 is a key psychological level; if the weekly closes above, it may open up upward space

• Risk warning: There are still uncertainties regarding the implementation of the tariff policy, and caution is needed for the risk of sudden increases in short-term volatility