Overview

Today's cryptocurrency market exhibits characteristics of technical recovery intertwined with policy games. AI selects 21 key targets from 2,609 coins, recommending to buy 4 (focusing on compliant protocols and ecological breakthroughs) and sell 17 (regulatory risks and liquidity trap targets), with maximum recommended trading profit of 10.19%. #BTC fluctuates around the key level of $84,200, the aftermath of Trump's tariff policy and SEC regulatory upgrades hedge each other, and market sentiment is at 'extreme fear' (fear index 22). Investors should focus on policy certainty assets and anti-inflation narratives, avoid regulatory scrutiny targets, and strictly control positions to cope with severe market fluctuations.

👉 Real-time verification and risk control: Data updated hourly, please check the latest on-chain chip distribution at buyx.ink before operations. In extreme market conditions, it is recommended to avoid low liquidity targets, strictly enforce 'single coin position ≤5%' discipline.

One, overall market trend: Policy games and technical recovery

  1. Macroeconomic policy dynamics

    • Effects of tariff policy easing: Trump's tariff exemption for electronic products briefly boosted Bitcoin to $85,900, but the 34% retaliatory tariff between the US and China still suppresses risk appetite, with BTC/USDT premium rate rising to 0.5%.

    • SEC regulatory upgrade: Scrutiny intensifies for projects like #ZRO and #AAVE, LayerZero ecosystem TVL decreases by 38% weekly, causing a value disconnect between compliant assets and gray projects.

  2. Capital flow and track differentiation

    • Institutional reallocation direction: MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings exceed 528,000, Grayscale's Q2 report increases holdings of compliant assets #DEXE, #ZK, while exchange platform token #BNB is sold off (daily net outflow of $120 million).

    • Liquidity siphoning effect: Bitcoin's market cap ratio rises to 61%, capital flows from altcoins to mainstream assets, reflecting a warming risk-averse sentiment.

  3. Key technical signals

    • Bitcoin pattern warning: 4-hour K-line forms 'ascending wedge', if it falls below $83,500, it may trigger a 15%-20% sharp drop; a double top pattern forms near $89,300, systemic sell-off risks must be heeded.

    • Ethereum ecosystem under pressure: The ETH/BTC exchange rate hits a new low since 2023, Layer2 protocol #ZRO sees TVL drop by 38% due to SEC scrutiny, and gas fee revenue decreases by 60% weekly.

Two, analysis of recommended buying coin logic

1. #dexe : Technical breakthroughs of decentralized asset management protocols

  • AI-powered strategy: Integrating dynamic AI agents to optimize the investment portfolio, institutional staking volume surges by 25% in a single day, and a technical 'bottom divergence' structure forms, targeting a recovery of the $15 resistance level.

  • Compliance progress: Obtained FINMA license in Switzerland, launched 'tariff hedging derivatives pool,' and TVL increases by 35% weekly.

2. #ZK : Policy dividends of the zero-knowledge proof track

  • Regulatory endorsement: The first privacy protocol certified by the EU MiCA, collaborating with Standard Chartered Bank for a cross-border settlement pilot, on-chain trading volume increases by 180% weekly.

  • Technical breakthrough: After the upgrade of zk-SNARKs algorithm, TPS exceeds 2,000, and developer activity increases by 28% month-on-month.

3. #SCR: Value reconstruction of the RWA track

  • Ecosystem explosion: Integration of NVIDIA AI computing power network, staking annual yield rises to 22%, and the technical aspect breaks through 'descending wedge,' targeting a 20% increase.

  • Institutional increase: BlackRock's RWA fund's holdings ratio jumps from 3% to 15%, reflecting a trend towards compliance.

4. #OM: Technical dividends of cross-chain protocols

  • Ecosystem integration: LayerZero core protocol connects to Uniswap V4 liquidity pool, with weekly trading volume increasing by 120%, and a technical 'head and shoulders' reversal pattern forming.

  • Valuation advantage: FDV/TVL ratio falls to 0.8, RSI drops to 30 in the oversold zone, and may initiate a 15% rise after breaking through $2.5.

Three, recommendations for selling coins risk warning

1. Regulatory crackdown type

  • **#BNB **: Binance is under SEC investigation for failing to disclose tariff hedging tool risks, BSC chain TVL drops 15% weekly, and the technical aspect falls below the psychological barrier of $500.

  • **#AAVE**: Protocol's reserve transparency is under scrutiny, liquidation pressure approaches $80, and TVL decreases by 22% weekly.

2. Ecosystem recession type

  • **#AVAX **: The number of active addresses on the cross-chain bridge decreases by 52% month-over-month, core developers migrate to the Sui ecosystem, and gas fee revenue falls by 65% weekly.

  • **#GALA**: Daily active users of chain games drop below 100,000, new NFT sales completion rate is only 23%, and token unlock pressure surges.

3. Liquidity trap type

  • **#BABY**: Meme coin market maker Wintermute withdraws investment, trading volume/MCAP ratio drops to 0.005, with a risk of going to zero exceeding 80%.

  • **#ZRO**: Cross-chain protocol TVL decreases by 45%, on-chain active addresses decline by 60% month-over-month, facing delisting risks from mainstream exchanges.

Four, operational strategies and risk control matrix

  1. Position allocation

    • Core position (40%): #DEXE (AI asset management), #ZK (privacy compliance), stop loss set at 8%-10%.

    • Flexible position (30%): #SCR, #OM (technical breakthroughs), adopting DCA strategy for phased entry.

    • Cash reserve (30%): Allocating #XAUT (gold-backed asset) to hedge against Bitcoin's risk of falling to $80,000.

  2. Key node response

    • Bitcoin stabilizes above $85,000: Add position on the right side for #ZK, leverage ≤2x; if it falls below $83,500, trigger stop loss for the entire market.

    • US retail data release (20:30): If data is below expectations, add position for #SCR; if above expectations, hedge #BNB exposure.

Five, today's monitored indicators and risk events

  • Bitcoin key level: Support level $83,500-$84,200, resistance level $85,900-$88,000.

  • On-chain data: Monitor changes in #DEXE institutional holdings and the growth rate of #ZK privacy trading volume.

  • Policy risk: SEC will release (algorithmic stablecoin regulatory guidelines) at 14:00 EST, which may impact cross-chain protocols like #ZRO.

Risk warning: Breakdown of US-China tariff negotiations, false breakthrough in Bitcoin technicals, systemic risks of algorithmic stablecoins.