The previous high prices were entirely reliant on speculation by the big players, focusing on reality, 0.3 is relatively reasonable.

US-China tariff tug-of-war.

The Trump administration's fluctuating tariff policies (such as retracting exemptions for certain products after April) have led to extreme market volatility, with Bitcoin fluctuating widely in the 80,000-85,000 range.

If tariffs escalate comprehensively, the Oxford Economics Institute predicts that global trade volume may shrink to levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis, which could put short-term pressure on Bitcoin but benefit it in the long term due to safe-haven demand.

US debt crisis and dollar liquidity.

The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to 4.51%, intensifying the pressure of $37 trillion in debt interest, with expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts rising. History shows that during periods of liquidity easing, Bitcoin's average increase exceeds 300%.

Bitwise analysts point out that the depreciation of the dollar and capital outflows (such as Chinese investors turning to Bitcoin) could drive prices to break through $200,000.

2. Market behavior verification.

Institutional and retail differentiation.

Whale addresses increased their holdings by 213,000 BTC in one week, but retail selling pressure led to short-term fluctuations. Institutions like MicroStrategy continue to accumulate, forming long-term support.

The correlation between Bitcoin and gold has risen to 0.5, strengthening the narrative of “digital gold” amidst tariff conflicts.

Key technical signals.

The 4-hour chart has formed a “W double bottom,” with 82,400-81,200 as the short-term bull-bear dividing line. If it holds above $85,000, the target looks towards $91,300.

The MACD golden cross shows upward momentum, but the RSI at 54 warns of potential overbought corrections.

3. Scenario simulation.