Since the sharp drop from over $95,000 on February 25 this year, BTC has been in a mid-term consolidation phase in the entire bull market for nearly two months now (with 10 days left). This is quite similar to the mid-term consolidation trend after the 2020 halving. At that time, after the significant drop on May 19, 2021, there was a two-month bottoming phase, and then adjustments ended on July 20, after which a continuous upward trend began, consistently breaking previous highs.

Currently, the bottom of BTC is hovering and can refer to the mid-term consolidation pattern of the last bull market, where the bottom has repeatedly spiked and rebounded to solidify the base, followed by a strong rebound that triggers the final wave of the bull market. Based on patterns and the current situation, the medal believes that the consolidation will end before the end of this month, initiating a new upward journey.

The medal has always believed that the bull market has not ended and should be viewed as a mid-term consolidation. In terms of time, the bear market requires one to one and a half years, which is completely sufficient. Therefore, the current market trend can still trigger a new wave of large-scale rises. Of course, one cannot rely solely on patterns for inference. More importantly, it is the facts connected by objective conditions. Below are the medal's views on the existence of bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin.

First of all, Bitcoin's global financial attributes have been legalized and formalized, with sufficient ease of participation and transactions conducted entirely in the open. The world's largest asset management group has intervened, an increasing number of listed companies are purchasing Bitcoin, and prominent investors are using it as a reserve for financial products. It is evident that there is a strong consensus on bullish sentiment, with significant advantages in its financial attributes. Moreover, these institutions' purchases are decisions made after thorough market research and analysis, rather than following the buy-up trend of ordinary retail investors. According to current data, the buying volume of listed companies reached over 95,000 coins in the first quarter of this year, with a total holding of 688,000 coins, making a significant contribution. The holdings of these listed companies in Bitcoin are for asset allocation, not short-term speculation, and their holding stability is high, with long-term goals, resulting in reduced circulation and low selling pressure.

The second aspect is that the current global economic situation is undergoing significant changes, and uncertainty is increasing. The safe financial attributes of the dollar may lose their position due to the decline of the U.S. economy and the crisis of U.S. debt. Coincidentally, Bitcoin, as a new type of global financial safe-haven asset, is easy to introduce and hold. Although there seems to be no hope for interest rate cuts in the U.S. right now, to develop the economy and reduce interest expenses, rate cuts are essential. The further increase in market liquidity remains promising, and the U.S., primarily driven by financial games, will further join the ranks of Bitcoin.

The third aspect is the market atmosphere and public opinion direction. The medal believes that the overall market atmosphere and people's expectations are precisely opposite; when everyone thinks the decline will continue, it is more likely to see an increase. This is similar to the market's unified bullish sentiment at the beginning of this year, where despite Trump's election support, a significant drop still occurred.

The fourth aspect, and the most important factor, is Trump's willingness to adopt Bitcoin as a national strategic reserve. The medal believes that once Congress passes the legislation to recognize Bitcoin as a national strategic fund reserve, and then proceeds to purchase Bitcoin, it will not benefit the nation's interests at all. It will only rapidly push up prices when buying chips, resulting in insufficient chips and significantly raising the average holding price, with no reserve profit to speak of. To acquire more cheap chips and gain benefits in future holdings, a more prudent approach would be to suppress coin prices, release negative news privately to buy in, and then release positive news after the reserve is ready, making the Bitcoin strategic reserve bill public. This would cause prices to skyrocket, and such logic aligns more closely with reality.

The above four points are the basis for the medal's analysis of the future bullish direction of Bitcoin from an objective perspective.

Finally, observing purely from the candlestick chart perspective, currently, Bitcoin's daily candlestick is still in a downward channel, as the major period moving averages on the daily chart are still in a bearish arrangement. The current daily K-line is at $85,000, challenging the resistance of MA 60 at $86,200. Once the price can strongly break through $86,200, it means that the bulls have initiated a counterattack, indicating a willingness to shift from short to long. If the price breaks above the peak of $89,000 on March 25, it means that BTC's movement has officially broken out of the bottom consolidation zone and is on an upward path. In the hourly chart details, there have been obvious active buying actions, with strong price support, continuously pushing towards the pressure boundary, indicating a technical pattern that could explode at any moment. However, the critical pressure point will lead to two outcomes: a strong break or a pullback for consolidation. The medal is not in control of the market and cannot provide a definitive answer on whether it will strongly break and rise. Thus, everyone needs to have confidence in the existence of long positions in the medium to long term. At the same time, for short-term volatility and pullbacks, one should remain objectively calm. If the current surge fails and retraces to $76,000, it is not a big deal. Overall, the market's selling pressure has been sufficiently consumed, and confidence is strong, indicating that the entire market trend is brewing for a significant rise.

Regarding participation, for those stuck in spot positions, patience is required to wait; it is not advisable to panic and exit due to unexpected final pullbacks. In terms of contract participation, continue to focus on long positions. For specific operations, the medal will provide simple technical analysis as a reference later.$BTC $BTC