If Trump's tariffs are fully implemented, the economy may stagnate, and the unemployment rate could soar to 5%. Even if inflation spikes, an emergency interest rate cut will be necessary to save the market. This overturns the traditional framework of "no easing until inflation falls," causing the market to erupt!

⚠️ Policy balance is swinging violently:

▫️ Full tariffs → recession priority: directly breaking the 2% inflation red line, and the interest rate cut may exceed expectations

▫️ 10% tariffs → moderate slowdown: maintaining the plan for three interest rate cuts in the second half of the year

💥 Market shockwaves are already evident:

• The US dollar index has short-term plummeted, gold has surpassed $3260/ounce, reaching a historic high

• Goldman Sachs has urgently raised its gold price forecast to $3700, with extreme scenarios potentially reaching $4500

• The yield curve of US Treasury bonds has deepened its inversion, with the 10-year Treasury yield once soaring by 15%

💡 Investors must focus on two major variables:

1️⃣ The final scale of tariffs (to be clarified in June review)

2️⃣ The turning signal from the June FOMC meeting dot plot

This game between the Federal Reserve and Trump is rewriting global monetary policy #比特币与美国关税政策 #美国半导体关税 #保护您的资产