📊 BTC "Right Side Signal" Update: Cost Basis by Age

🔍 Cost Basis Analysis by Age: Comparing the "<1 Month Short-term Chip Cost" (Red Line) with the "<6 Months Mid-term Chip Cost" (Green Line). When the red line is below the green line, it indicates a decline in short-term investor profits, and the market needs time to adjust; when the red line crosses above the green line, it suggests new demand is driving up costs, often accompanied by a trending market (Figure 1).

📈 Current Status: BTC price has risen above the green line, and market confidence is gradually recovering, but the red line is still below the green line. In July 2024 (Point A), the red line failed to touch the green line, and the price continued to adjust; in September (Point B), the red line successfully crossed above the green line, and BTC entered a trending market, with an increase of over 70%. Is it A or B now? Based on the distance between the red and green lines, it may take about 1 month to find out.

⚠️ Not every time the red line crosses above the green line leads to a significant rise. After the panic sell-off on 5.19.2021, BTC price first rose above the green line, market confidence warmed, and after the red line crossed above the green line, it rebounded by 37% (Figure 2). However, the early rebound was missed before the signal, and the market retreated by 16% after the signal, which did not damage the trend. Some friends in the comments questioned: If a similar situation occurs again, is a 20-30% profit worth participating? Risk and return vary from person to person; in the highly volatile crypto market, strategies seeking low-risk returns are also reasonable.

🌐 Observing the Current Cycle: On-chain and exchange data indicate that BTC is unlikely to replicate the high returns of previous cycles. The 4-year cycle may become blurred, and the future may consist of alternating "local bear markets" and "trending markets" during bull-bear transitions. Patiently waiting for the right side signal, focus on key support/resistance levels, and seize trend opportunities!