With the resumption of tariff policies by Donald Trump at the beginning of 2025 soon after his inauguration, global markets reacted (and continue to react) with uncertainty, reflecting a scenario of economic tension that quickly reached the crypto universe.
The price of Bitcoin, as happens in many moments of instability, suffered a non-negligible drop. However, contrary to what some expected, the subsequent reaction was a wave of investors turning their attention back to BTC as a form of protection against the possible devaluation of the US dollar.
This dynamic reignites the debate about the role of Bitcoin as a store of value in times of global turmoil. More than a speculative asset, BTC is once again positioned by part of the market as the so-called 'digital gold' — especially when political and trade tensions threaten the stability of fiat currencies.
In this article, we will discuss how this currently unstable environment relates to the prices of Bitcoin and other projects in the crypto universe.
Trade war and reaction of the crypto market
The announcement of additional tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, Canada, and even Vietnam not only caused tension between the countries but also raised fears in traditional financial markets. Things are so unstable that it would even be presumptuous of us to talk about the numbers of these tariffs, given that they change at a frightening speed.
Even without discussing the numbers, the logic remains clear: tariffs increase production chain costs, reduce global consumption, and fuel inflationary risks. In light of this, investors seek protection in assets that are not directly tied to government monetary policies — and this is where Bitcoin comes back into the picture.
Historically, geopolitical crises or unilateral economic decisions by major powers generate capital flight towards assets considered more neutral and resistant to state interference. Gold has always occupied this space, but Bitcoin has been gaining relevance as a viable digital alternative, especially among a new generation of investors who see decentralization as a pillar of security.
Why does Bitcoin appreciate in times of tension?
In times of geopolitical or economic instability, Bitcoin tends to attract greater attention from investors precisely because it represents an alternative outside the traditional financial system. Its resilience in these scenarios can be explained by a combination of technical, ideological, and functional fundamentals.
The first key point is the decentralized nature of Bitcoin. Unlike fiat currencies, which are subject to issuance controlled by central banks — often in response to fiscal or monetary crises — BTC operates independently of any central authority. It is not possible to 'print' more Bitcoin beyond the protocol limit of 21 million units.
This positions it as a scarce asset resistant to inflation caused by expansionary monetary policies. In contexts where governments resort to devaluing the national currency to deal with economic imbalances, Bitcoin ends up being perceived as a digital safe haven.
Another relevant factor is the predictability of its monetary policy. The halvings — scheduled events that reduce the issuance of new BTCs by half every 210,000 blocks — ensure that the incentives for new mined units of the cryptocurrency decrease over time, accentuating its scarcity. This creates a direct contrast with the behavior of state currencies, whose supply can be abruptly increased, creating uncertainties about their future purchasing power.
Additionally, the global and highly liquid nature of Bitcoin makes it particularly attractive in times of crisis. The ability to move large amounts of capital through peer-to-peer transactions, without the need for banks or borders, is seen as a strategic advantage by individuals and institutions looking to protect wealth or seek alternatives outside the traditional banking system.
This factor gains even more weight when there is a risk of capital controls, bank account freezes, or currency instability in certain jurisdictions.
Finally, there is also the symbolic element: Bitcoin is, for many investors, a form of resistance to the centralized financial system. In times of institutional uncertainty, such as trade wars, armed conflicts, or drastic changes in economic policy, this narrative gains strength and can fuel inflows into the asset, driving its appreciation.
Comparisons with gold: BTC as a safe-haven asset
The analogy with gold becomes inevitable. Both are scarce assets, with functions as a store of value and little correlation with traditional assets, such as stocks or public debt securities.
The main difference — and advantage of Bitcoin — lies in its digital nature, which eliminates geographical and logistical barriers. In a global scenario with increasing risks of trade war, this becomes important.
While central banks adjust interest rate policies and governments engage in fiscal policy via tariffs and subsidies, Bitcoin operates apart from this ecosystem. It is precisely this independence that makes it attractive in contexts like the current one.
Trump, tariffs, and dollar instability: what to expect next?
With the new tariffs imposed by the US (and the ups and downs of the same), the dollar may lose strength against emerging currencies or, at the very least, suffer from fluctuations as the political scenario evolves. This happens because, with the reduction of confidence in the ability to do business in the US, people begin to 'flee' to other assets that are not the dollar or US debt to protect themselves from these instabilities.
In this environment, the thesis that Bitcoin serves as a hedge against the dollar gains traction. Economists have commented that excessive fiscal stimuli combined with protectionist measures tend to benefit crypto assets, as they act as alternatives to direct exposure to the American financial system.
Moreover, institutional funds are beginning to move more aggressively in the face of uncertainty. Data from the futures market shows an increase in the volume of contracts betting on the appreciation of BTC, while stablecoins pegged to the dollar continue to be moved to exchanges, signaling readiness for entries into the spot market.
Will other countries follow the path of the US?
The tariff policy may trigger similar measures by other economies, especially in retaliation against the US or as a way to protect their own industries. The side effect of this may be even greater fragmentation of trust in fiat currencies and multilateral trade rules. In this context, neutral digital assets that are globally tradable tend to gain ground.
Another likely possibility is the relocation of global value chains. Or, in plain English: countries that find it more difficult to negotiate with the US will seek other trading partners around the world.
Meanwhile, as long as everything does not equalize, if countries seek to protect their international reserves or diversify their currency exposures, Bitcoin may indeed emerge as one of the considered options — as has already been seen in debates in Russia, Argentina, and even the European Union at previous moments.
Geopolitics places Bitcoin at the center of the new global economy
The issue of the ups and downs of tariffs by the US may have broader effects than one might imagine — not only on trade but on the fundamentals that sustain the current international financial system. In this scenario, Bitcoin emerges as a relevant alternative for those seeking protection, freedom of movement, and risk de-correlation.
It is clear that the BTC is still far from being a consensus as a reserve asset at the state level. But moves like this reinforce its narrative as an antifragile asset — capable of thriving precisely in unstable environments.
For investors attentive to the intersection between geopolitics and crypto-economics, understanding this dynamic is essential for making sound decisions in the upcoming cycles.
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