After the end of the "cepo", there is talk of a new scheme for the official dollar in Argentina: a system of exchange rate bands, with a floor at 1000 ARS and a ceiling at 1400 ARS per USD.
What does it mean? Theoretically, the Central Bank would intervene by buying dollars if the official price drops to 1000, and selling if it rises to 1400, to keep it within that range.
How does this affect the USDT/ARS that we see in #Binance ? 🤔
It is crucial to understand:
They are distinct markets: The USDT/ARS reflects the price of the dollar in the crypto/paralelo market, NOT the official rate.
But they are connected: Official market policies strongly influence the parallel market.
Possible effects of the bands (1000-1400) on USDT/ARS:
Anchor Effect: The official bands could act as a psychological reference. If the official dollar remains stable within the bands, it could moderate the volatility of the USDT/ARS.
Pressure at the Extremes:
If the official dollar approaches the ceiling (1400) and access remains limited, unsatisfied demand could shift to USDT, pushing its price above 1400.
If the official dollar approaches the floor (1000), it could exert downward pressure on the USDT/ARS, although historically, crypto tends to have a 'spread' or difference above the official rate.
The "Spread" is Key: The difference between the official dollar (within the band) and the USDT/ARS will be a vital indicator. Will it widen or narrow with this new system?
Credibility: The perceived ability and willingness of the BCRA to defend these bands will be fundamental. If the market does not believe in the bands, their influence on the USDT/ARS will be lower.
TRADERS: This new scenario adds another variable to consider when analyzing and trading USDT/ARS. Monitoring the official dollar and the actions of the BCRA will be more important than ever!
In summary: the limits of 1000/1400 are now crucial psychological references for USDT/ARS.
Stay alert to those key zones!
#argentina #USDT/ARS #BandasCambiarias #FinDelCepo
