Markets are calming down despite escalation

Risk assets have started to stabilize after a week of trade "swings" between the US and China. Even colossal tariffs—145% on Chinese imports (US) and 125% retaliatory tariffs (China)—are now perceived as symbolic rather than market-significant. This contrasts with the panic during the initial days of the "Liberation Day shocks" (a conditional name for the peak of the crisis).

The art of cancellation: a gesture of peace or retreat?

Amid increasingly aggressive rhetoric, both sides have begun taking cautious steps toward de-escalation:

The US has secretly excluded smartphones, computers, and chips from new tariffs ahead of Friday's market opening.

China has urged the US to "fully cancel" mutual tariffs.

Who will surrender first?
Washington is looking for leverage.
Beijing is trying to buy time.

Both sides are weak, but are attempting to show strength. However, markets are discounting optimism despite the deadlock.

What about Bitcoin?

Short-term caution: BTC risk reversals until June are skewed toward puts (fear of decline).

Long-term optimism: On Saturday, an aggressive purchase of 800x BTC-27MAR26-100k-C was recorded.

Current range: BTC is consolidating in the corridor of $80,000–$90,000. A sideways trend is likely until clarity on the trade war emerges.

Key conclusions:

Tariffs as theater: Markets have adapted to rhetoric, focusing on real actions by both sides.

BTC: Balance between caution and optimism: Short-term hedging via puts vs. long-term bets on growth.
Triggers: Any signs of conflict easing could lead to a test of $90,000.

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