4.14 "From Monero to Zcash, Is a Crash Possible?"

Today Bitcoin is rising, the market is warming up, but beware of the risk of ZEC tokens; a pullback to 41-36 could be an entry point! Below are the reasons for the analysis, technical aspects outlined, and market sentiment analyzed; overall, hold firm until 12.9 to take profit.

ZEC (Zcash), as a representative project in the privacy coin sector, may face potential crash risks from multiple dimensions. Below is a systematic analysis from the technical, regulatory, market, and ecological perspectives:

1. Regulatory Crackdown (Core Risk)

Since 2024, exchanges in Japan, South Korea, the European Union, and other countries have delisted privacy coins such as Monero (XMR) and Dash (DASH). If the U.S. SEC classifies ZEC as a security (similar to the allegations faced by XMR), or if the FATF (Financial Action Task Force) imposes stricter transaction tracking requirements, ZEC may face collective delisting from mainstream exchanges, leading to a sharp decline in liquidity.

2. Technological Iteration Lag

In 2023, Zcash was exposed to a **counter vulnerability** that caused abnormal block generation; if a similar on-chain transaction traceability vulnerability occurs (like the 2020 Fluffypony incident with Monero), market confidence will be severely impacted.

3. Institutional Reduction

If the holdings of Grayscale ZEC Trust (GZEC) continue to decrease (15% reduction in Q4 2024)

4. Ecological Shrinkage

By 2024, there are fewer than one-third of the merchants supporting ZEC payments compared to Monero, and they mainly rely on dark web demand. If the demand for privacy payments is replaced by compliant stablecoins (like USDT + off-chain mixers), the practicality of ZEC will significantly decline.

Historical Reference Case

Monero (XMR): After being delisted by major exchanges in 2021, its market value fell from $4.5B to $1.8B (-60%).

#美国半导体关税 $ZEC