$BTC US-China Tariff Tug-of-War

The Trump administration's tariff policy has been inconsistent (such as withdrawing exemptions for certain products after announcing them in April), leading to significant fluctuations in market sentiment, with Bitcoin oscillating widely between the 80,000-85,000 range.

If tariffs are fully escalated, the Oxford Economics Institute predicts that global trade volume may shrink to levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis, which could put short-term pressure on Bitcoin but benefit it in the long term due to safe-haven demand.

US Debt Crisis and Dollar Liquidity

The yield on 10-year US Treasuries soared to 4.51%, intensifying the pressure from $37 trillion in debt interest, and expectations for Fed rate cuts are rising. History shows that during liquidity easing cycles, Bitcoin's average price increase exceeds 300%.

Bitwise analysts point out that the depreciation of the dollar and capital outflows (such as Chinese investors turning to Bitcoin) may drive prices to break through $200,000.

II. Market Behavior Verification

Institutional and Retail Divergence

Whale addresses increased their holdings by 213,000 BTC in one week, but retail selling pressure led to short-term volatility. Institutions like MicroStrategy continue to increase their holdings, forming long-term support.

The correlation between Bitcoin and Gold has risen to 0.5, reinforcing the narrative of “digital gold” amid tariff conflicts.

Key Technical Signals

The 4-hour chart has formed a “W double bottom,” with 82,400-81,200 as the short-term bullish-bearish dividing line. If it holds above $85,000, the target looks towards $91,300.

The MACD golden cross indicates upward momentum, but the RSI at 54 warns of potential overbought corrections.