Master discusses hot topics:
Speaking of which, the only thing still facing tariffs now is imported cars and parts, which also have the possibility of negotiations and easing regarding tariffs with East Asia. In the coming period, tariffs may gradually release positive news, which aligns with my previous expectations.
The tariffs on April 2 were the worst-case scenario, with almost no possibility of enforcement; the harm from tariffs will gradually decrease. However, besides tariffs, the economy remains a critical factor that cannot be ignored. This has become a dilemma; if the economy is good, the Federal Reserve will not rush to cut rates.
If the economy does poorly, a rate cut by the Federal Reserve indicates an increased possibility of recession. The economy is the real headache moving forward, and the focus should be on the GDP data to be announced at the end of April, as this data will hold greater significance.
Returning to Bitcoin, the weekly U-shaped reversal trend is similar to that after May 19, with prices reaching new historical highs again. The weekly bullish engulfing pattern, coupled with the fact that no announcements were made on Friday regarding tariff exemptions for electronic products, indicates that the market reversal is signaled when the negative news cannot break new lows.
Previously, the weekly trend showed a gradual increase, and in the mid to late period, as interest rate cuts approached, the main upward wave began, with selling near new highs before the rate cut. Over the weekend, bulls have gained considerable strength. Some friends have started to ask if the trend has reversed. Personally, I believe we are on the brink of a reversal.
Because the trend reversal must first break through 93k, the current rebound is a weekly level pullback. Yesterday morning, a 3-day line pullback was completed, with a high of 86.1k.
So if it breaks through here, it will head towards the daily Bollinger Band upper track at 88.5k, which is the strongest pressure during this period. A breakout would target 91 to 93k. If it cannot break, it will pull back to adjust between 85 to 83k. If bulls are strong, the strategy should shift to low long positions primarily, with high short positions as a supplement, and only short on larger points.
Master observes the trend:
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 86600
Second resistance level: 85300
Support level reference:
First support level: 83350
Second support level: 82300
Today's suggestion:
Yesterday, Bitcoin dropped from 86k after a wave and is currently rebounding. Such adjustments are actually quite normal, especially before prices surge too high and enter overbought territory, so the current adjustment is still considered healthy.
The first resistance level at 85.3k is the high point from yesterday's candlestick close. If the price can stabilize around this area and slowly raise the low points, there is hope for a breakout. After the breakout, it may retest for confirmation, which is also a buying opportunity on a very short-term basis.
However, from a market psychology perspective, it may be a bit difficult to stabilize in the range of 85 to 85.3. Thus, it is essential to monitor trading volume; if the volume does not keep up, the price may need to adjust and consolidate for a while.
The first support level at 83.5k is currently the most important support level, as it was previously a resistance area. It now coincides with the 120 and 200-day moving averages, so buying in this range on a short-term basis offers a more favorable risk-reward ratio.
If the first support level cannot hold, the price may decline to 82.3k. If it drops sharply, one can pay attention to the lower shadow of the candlestick and look for opportunities to enter a short-term rebound.
4.14 Master’s wave segment entry:
Long entry reference: 81400-82300 range with light positions; target: 83350-85300
Short entry reference: 85300-86100 range with light positions; target: 83350-82300