April 12 Market Analysis

The current market has not yet formed a reversal condition, with chips continuously stacking in the $83,000 region. However, there are three major contradictory signals accompanying the rising price: CME data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June has risen to 25%, and the expectation for rate cuts continues to weaken; the on-chain turnover rate has sharply increased, revealing the intention of long-term holders to reduce their holdings; and the single-day selling volume of whale accounts has reached a recent high, resonating with the outflow of funds from the U.S. Treasury market across markets.

This round of rebound is essentially a mixed product of short covering and policy games. While $83,000 shows technical bottoming characteristics, the chip structure still appears loose. Especially under the resonance of corrected rate cut expectations and institutional reductions, one should be cautious of the secondary bottoming risk triggered by liquidity withdrawal.

Operational Suggestion: Gradually layout short positions relying on the resistance zone of $85,000-$86,000, while being wary of price false breakouts that lure buyers.