U.S. inflation data shows: March CPI inflation at 2.4%, below the expected 2.6% and the previous 2.8%; March PPI price index at 2.7%, below the expected 3.3% and previous 3.2%. The core CPI year-on-year rate for March was 2.8%, the lowest in four years. March's CPI month-on-month rate was -0.1%, unexpectedly recording a negative value, the lowest level since May 2020. On Friday, gold rose to $3,240 per ounce, hitting a new historical high; the Nasdaq index rose by 1.3% during the day. The dollar index DXY plunged 60 points, falling below the 100 mark for the first time since July 2023.

Returning to the main topic:

Regulatory Developments: New York State Attorney General Letitia James wrote to Congress, the House Speaker, and House Minority Leaders, urging them to pass a federal digital asset regulatory framework to mitigate the risks of fraud, criminal activity, and financial instability. The widespread adoption of BTC threatens the dominance of the dollar and calls for the localization of stablecoins. The New Hampshire House passed the BTC reserve bill HB 302, which still needs to be reviewed and voted on by the Senate and signed by the governor to become law. If the governor signs or vetoes the bill, it will take effect on the date specified in the text, usually a certain time after signing (e.g., 60 days or the start of the next fiscal year). The Florida Insurance and Banking Commission passed the BTC reserve bill HB 487, which still needs to pass three committees in the House: the Government Operations Committee, the Finance Committee, and the Business Committee. The New York State Assembly submitted a bill (No. 7788) proposing to amend state finance laws to authorize state government agencies to accept BTC, ETH, LTC, and other cryptocurrencies as a means of payment. The applicable scope includes fines, taxes, rents, financial obligations, and more. The bill, introduced by legislator Clyde Vanel, aims to promote the application of digital assets in public services. North Carolina legislators proposed the Digital Asset Freedom Act (H.B. 920), intending to allow the use of crypto assets in tax payments and other economic transactions. The bill stipulates that eligible digital assets must have a market capitalization of at least $750 billion, a daily trading volume of no less than $10 billion, and a public market operating history of over ten years with resistance to censorship.

Industry Insights and Trends: Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson stated in an interview with CNBC that the entry of tech giants like Microsoft and Apple into the cryptocurrency space, along with Trump's tariffs, may result in a lot of noise but little impact, and the market will stabilize slightly before the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. He believes that BTC could reach $250,000 by the end of this year or next year. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost_Coc reported that based on technical indicators where the 30-day moving average has fallen below the yearly average, the crypto market has entered the accumulation area of altcoins. The last time a similar technical pattern appeared was in September 2023, coinciding with the end of the crypto bear market. 10x Research's head of research Markus Thielen stated that the bullish outlook for BTC due to a potential U.S. economic recession may be premature; the widening credit spread in U.S. Treasuries suggests that concerns about a recession are penetrating deeper into the economy. Although the long-term impacts of a recession may benefit BTC, usually, monetary easing occurs after the Fed cuts rates, and the first rate cut may not have a significant impact and may take a long time to recover. Market Capital Flows: On April 10, the U.S. BTC spot ETF saw an outflow of $149.5 million, and the ETH spot ETF had an outflow of $38.8 million. On April 10, Tether issued $1 billion in stablecoins, and since 2025, Tether has issued $8 billion in stablecoins on Tron.

On April 10, Trump suspended part of the tariff plan for 90 days, leading to a recovery in U.S. stock indexes alongside the cryptocurrency market; the Nasdaq index rebounded over 12% that day, and BTC reached $83,000. Regulatory personnel changes and policies: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) welcomed a new director, Paul Atkins, who was confirmed by the Senate with a vote of 52 to 44. Paul Atkins stated that establishing a regulatory framework for digital assets will be a top priority, and on his first day in office, April 10, the SEC approved the listing of spot ETH ETF options. Multiple crypto-related lawsuits during the tenure of former SEC director Gary Gensler have been dismissed. Market Summary: On Friday, the dollar index DXY plunged 60 points, falling below the 100 mark for the first time since July 2023. Deutsche Bank warned that confidence in U.S. assets is rapidly declining, and U.S. assets (stocks, bonds, and the dollar) are collapsing, with 'de-dollarization' advancing rapidly. Kevin Hassett, director of the U.S. Council of Economic Advisers, stated that volatility in the Treasury market might have added urgency to Trump's decision to suspend tariffs. On Wednesday, the yield on 10-year Treasuries rose above 4.5%, and the yield on 30-year Treasuries soared above 5%, leading to a sharp drop in U.S. bond prices. Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that the recent rise in Treasury yields could have influenced Trump's decision to suspend tariffs.

Analyst Eugene stated that if the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries continues to rise, things in the real world will start to break down; Trump now has no more actions to take and is in a dilemma. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes sarcastically remarked that more work is needed to control the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries, and it is time for Powell to step up and control the yield. March inflation CPI and PPI both fell, both below market expectations. The overall CPI year-on-year rate was 2.4%, the lowest in six months; the core CPI year-on-year rate was 2.8%, the lowest in four years. The U.S. March CPI month-on-month rate was -0.1%, unexpectedly recording a negative value, the lowest level since May 2020. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman stated: Growth is robust but slowing, and the CPI report shows that inflation has decreased. The Federal Reserve's initial response to the CPI is expected to be cautious, but risks remain that the extent of the economic slowdown may exceed expectations, potentially leading the Fed to restart the easing cycle.

On Friday, gold broke through $3,240 per ounce, hitting a new historical high, rising over 2% during the day. The Nasdaq index rose 1.3% during the day, the S&P 500 index rose 1.2%, the Dow Jones index rose 1.1%, BTC rose 5%, and ETH rose 4.5%. UBS stated: The next step will be for the Federal Reserve to act at some point, providing a rising path for gold, and the European Central Bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points at next week's meeting. Attention should be paid to the subsequent data and trends of the Federal Reserve; if rate cut expectations resume, it will provide medium- to long-term momentum for so-called risk assets, including BTC. Interest rate futures fully price in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in June, with a cumulative cut of 87 basis points throughout the year. This week, U.S. stock indexes fell sharply, U.S. bonds were sold off, and the dollar index plummeted. The restless Trump may calm down temporarily (hard to predict). The significant declines in March CPI, PPI, etc., also provide the possibility for a rate cut in June. After this wave of calm, we hope BTC and others return to the rate cut theme, as rate cuts are favorable for risk assets.