On Monday, U.S. stock indices opened, with the Nasdaq slightly up 0.06%, the S&P 500 index rising 0.2%, and the Dow Jones index up 0.5%. Morgan Stanley stated that uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs, especially repeated changes, has led capital to shift to non-U.S. assets. This Thursday, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision, with the market expecting 0.5%, the same as the previous value.
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TheBlock reported that two bills (Arizona Strategic BTC Reserve Bill) passed the final vote in the House of Representatives, awaiting Governor Katie Hobbs' signature. Arizona may become the first state in the U.S. to require public funds to invest in BTC. Among them, Bill SB 1373 proposes to establish a digital asset strategic reserve fund managed by the state treasurer, with funding sources including seized assets and legislative appropriations, allowing up to 10% of the fund to be invested in BTC and other digital assets each fiscal year. Bill SB 1025 allows the state treasury and pension systems to invest up to 10% of available funds in digital assets, focusing on BTC. Currently, several states, including Iowa, Missouri, and Texas, are considering whether to establish BTC reserves. Elon Musk posted on social media that the early test version of Grok 3.5 will be released next week, exclusively for SuperGrok subscribers. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart stated that the listing date for ProShares' XRP ETF has not yet been determined. According to CoinGecko data, 100 days into Trump's presidency, the crypto market has evaporated $537 billion in market value. ETH founder Vitalik Buterin stated that the ETH Foundation (EF) has set two main goals: the primary goal is to enhance the utilization rate of ETH, particularly emphasizing user scenarios that allow real benefits from ETH's underlying properties; the second is to comprehensively enhance ETH's resilience and decentralization, focusing on identifying and addressing potential weaknesses across various layers of the tech stack.
Riot Platforms' vice president of research, Pierre Rochard, questioned ETH's targets, stating: these goals do not help enhance ETH's value; they are clichés and superficial, suggesting that the ETH Foundation should go public on Nasdaq. Bernstein analysts believe that BTC price narratives fluctuate between gold and Nasdaq correlations, with short-term associations being highly misleading. The surge in corporate buying and ETF fund inflows are key indicators that could drive supply constraints and push prices to new highs. Last week, Twenty One Capital announced an initial accumulation of 42,000 BTC. The U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $3 billion last week, hitting a five-month high, with institutional participation rising from 20% in September last year to 33%. It is expected that BTC will reach around $200,000 by the end of 2025. QCP Capital analysis indicates that last week, as U.S. stock indices fell, BTC rose alongside gold. This week, BTC has shown a shift, rising in sync with the stock market, mainly influenced by news from 21 Capital. This round appears fundamentally healthier than previous cycles, and the sustainability of BTC's upward momentum will face several key tests this week, with important macroeconomic data and corporate earnings reports potentially being crucial factors determining whether BTC's trend continues.
On April 28, the U.S. BTC spot ETF saw inflows of $591 million, with BlackRock's IBIT seeing inflows of $970.9 million and ARKB experiencing outflows of $226 million. The U.S. ETH spot ETF had inflows of $64.1 million. ETF expert Nate Geraci stated: the net inflow of BlackRock's IBIT on April 28 was $970.9 million, making it the second-largest single-day inflow since the ETF's establishment in January 2024. Strategy invested $1.42 billion to increase its holdings by 15,355 BTC last week. The gap between BlackRock's BTC spot ETF and Strategy’s BTC holdings has narrowed to 20,000 BTC, with BlackRock currently holding 573,869 BTC and Strategy holding 553,555 BTC. JPMorgan Chase stated: the best estimate is that the stablecoin market size could grow to between $50 billion and $75 billion in the coming years, assuming 70% is allocated to U.S. Treasury bonds and 30% to Treasury repurchase agreements, making stablecoin issuers the third-largest buyers of U.S. Treasury bonds. Morgan Stanley noted that uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs, especially repeated policy changes, combined with challenges to the Fed's independence, could lead foreign investments to reduce their stakes in the U.S. and shift to non-U.S. assets. Geoffrey Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated: U.S. Treasury term premiums (highly correlated with BTC) are currently at their highest level in 12 years, and U.S. investors may be seeking to allocate to non-U.S. assets. Last week's ETF fund flows indicate that some safe-haven funds are shifting to BTC, driven by strategic reallocation of funds from U.S. assets to other areas. BTC is expected to reach a historical high in the second quarter.
Analyst James Van Straten data: The correlation coefficient of BTC's 30-day moving average with gold reached 0.70, while its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index is 0.53, indicating that BTC's performance is closer to gold's trend. This Thursday, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision, with the market expecting it to remain unchanged at 0.5%. Bank of America strategist Shusuke Yamada stated that the expected time for the next rate hike has been pushed back from June to the end of 2025. On Tuesday, the U.S. first-quarter GDP forecast was revised down from 2.4% to 2.2%, while the core PCE price index forecast was revised up from 2.6% to 3.2%. On Friday, non-farm employment was expected to drop from 228,000 to 135,000, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. U.S. tariff actions have led to capital outflows from the U.S. and inflows into non-U.S. assets, with gold clearly benefiting. The recent BTC market has shifted from following U.S. stock index fluctuations (correlation 0.53) to following gold fluctuations (correlation 0.7). On Monday, BlackRock's BTC spot ETF saw inflows of $970.9 million, and the capital market shows optimism towards BTC. This week, attention is on the U.S. economic and employment data; better data will reduce the probability of the Fed cutting rates, while worse data will increase it. The FOMC meeting dates are May 7, June 18, and July 30, providing three consecutive months of opportunities for rate cuts; any of these could lead to a reduction, with expectations for the Fed to shift its stance. Currently, there is a need to guard against any negative impact from Trump’s tariffs. A bit more time is needed before the turning point, hoping for a smooth transition to a new phase of rate cuts. #特朗普就职百日