$ETH Macroeconomics and Policy Pressures

◦ US-China Tariff Escalation: The Trump administration's tariffs have triggered expectations of a global trade contraction, leading to a sharp decline in US stocks that has dragged down the cryptocurrency market, with ETH being particularly affected as a high-risk asset.

◦ Federal Reserve Policy: Expectations for interest rate cuts have been pushed back to December, and tightening USD liquidity is suppressing the valuations of risk assets, putting short-term pressure on ETH.

2. On-chain Data and Capital Flows

◦ Whale Behavior: Recently, there have been multiple large sell-offs (such as a single sale of $11.8 million), but long-term holders (LTH) continue to accumulate approximately 17 million ETH, indicating a divergence.