The US March PPI data unexpectedly fell below expectations, strengthening the trend of cooling inflation! The market bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates ahead of schedule, Bitcoin's short-term surge breaks key resistance; is the bull market catalyst in place?
Data interpretation: Inflation pressure continues to ease.
1. PPI annual rate 2.7% (expected 3.3%, previous value 3.2%), monthly rate -0.4% (expected +0.2%, previous value 0.1%), the largest month-on-month decline since April 2020.
2. Core PPI monthly rate 0.2%: The decline in energy and service industry costs is the main drag, further indicating the possibility of CPI retreating.
3. Market response: The US dollar index has fallen below 104, US Treasury yields have declined, and CME FedWatch shows the probability of a rate cut in June has risen to 82%.
Crypto market volatility: Capital inflows accelerate.
1. BTC breaks through $67,000 in the short term, with a 24-hour increase of 4.3%; Ethereum touches $3,300, and mainstream coins like SOL and DOGE follow suit.
2. On-chain signals: The BTC stock on exchanges has fallen to 1.8 million (a three-year low), and over 35,000 BTC flowed out from Coinbase in the past week.
3. Institutional trends: BlackRock and Fidelity's BTC spot ETF have seen net inflows for three consecutive days, and Standard Chartered has reiterated a target price of $100,000 for BTC by the end of the year.
Interest rate cut logic: The liquidity dividend is coming.
1. Countdown to the easing cycle: If interest rate cuts start in June, the US stock market and the crypto market may attract capital simultaneously. Historical data shows that the average return rate of BTC in the first year after an interest rate cut exceeds 200%.
2. Liquidity reservoir: The pace of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction has slowed, with reverse repo balances falling below $450 billion; the trend of funds turning to high-risk assets is clear.
3. Sector rotation opportunities: The AI track (RNDR, TAO), RWA (ONDO, MKR), and BTC ecosystem (STX, CKB) are favored by major capital.
Operational suggestion: Focus on core narratives.
1. Short-term strategy: Gradually build positions in the 65,500-66,500 range during pullbacks, focusing on BTC, ETH, and compliant narrative targets.
2. Mid-term layout: Prepare for fluctuations around the Federal Reserve's decision, hold spot with low leverage, and avoid high-volatility altcoins.
3. Risk warning: Escalation of the Middle East situation and fluctuating inflation data may lead to short-term pullbacks; avoid excessive chasing of highs.
With the dual drive of macro shifts and capital inflows, a new round of market movements in the crypto market may have already started. Pay attention to May's CPI data and the progress of Ethereum ETF approvals; the main line of the bull market is becoming clearer.
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