Chinese concept stocks face a life-and-death crisis! The latest development shows that the US SEC is promoting the comprehensive implementation of the (Foreign Company Accountability Act), which means that Chinese concept stocks that do not meet audit requirements will be forced to delist before 2024. As players in the cryptocurrency space, we must be vigilant about the chain reaction of this storm.
There are three core risk points:
1. Dollar blood transfusion channel breaks: Over 200 Chinese concept stocks are linked to over a hundred billion dollars in market value. Once they collectively delist, companies will face huge financial pressures from stock buybacks, debt liquidation, etc. The key issue is that there are legal blind spots in cross-border guarantee agreements. If US courts enforce domestic assets, it could trigger a chain debt crisis.
2. Credit rating strikes: Forced delisting = red card penalty in the international capital market. These companies not only lose their ability to raise funds in the US stock market, but also have limited capacity to be absorbed by Hong Kong/A-shares (market cap thresholds, dual-class share restrictions, etc.). Some companies that burn cash to gain market share may face direct blood loss.
3. Regulatory game amplifies risks: The current situation is more dangerous than the Didi incident in 2021. The negotiation of audit working papers between China and the US is still at a standstill. If both sides cannot reach an agreement before August, the first batch of 89 companies will enter the countdown to delisting. What’s more troublesome is that the US may expand the sanctions list to drag technology companies into the fray.
It is worth noting that this wave of impact may affect the cryptocurrency market: Some exchanges and project parties with backgrounds in Chinese concept stocks may face the risk of frozen overseas assets; traditional institutional investors may sell off Asian assets (including cryptocurrencies) to cover margins; the cross-border flow of stablecoins such as USDT may see stronger regulation.
In my personal judgment, there may be three possible outcomes of this game:
1. Best case: China and the US reach an audit agreement before the deadline (Probability 30%)
2. Compromise solution: Leading companies shift to Hong Kong stocks, small and mid-cap stocks privatized and delisted (Probability 50%)
3. Worst case: Complete decoupling of Chinese and US capital, triggering a global liquidity crisis (Probability 20%)
Operational advice: For tokens related to the concept, it is advisable to set stop-losses and pay attention to the policy trends of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (favorable for compliant trading platforms in Hong Kong), reserving 30% of positions to guard against black swan events. This capital shadow war has just begun; do not turn a breakout battle into an annihilation battle.
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