Many people always think they can sell in a bull market and bottom fish in a bear market.
In fact, both bull and bear markets are recognized only retrospectively; during this process, you cannot know.
Based on the situation you don’t know, that is, without the conditions for judgment, then the so-called selling in a bull market and bottom fishing in a bear market becomes an impossible concept.
Many people say, how could you not know that 100,000 is a bull market and 70,000 is a bear market? Then I ask you, what about 150,000? What about 200,000? And then it drops to 50,000 or 60,000? How do you explain that?
Based on the actions of selling in a bull market and bottom fishing in a bear market, those who succeed are essentially just lucky.
The only two actions you can truly control in the cryptocurrency market are buying and selling, and one variable: how much to buy or sell.
Everything else is out of your control.
From a retrospective view, like today, 100,000 should be sold off immediately. When to bottom out, you don’t know. When it drops to 50,000 and then to 200,000, you will feel that 50,000 to 80,000 is the right time to buy. However, if it doesn’t drop or rise, at this moment, you will never know.
So the concepts of selling in a bull market and bottom fishing in a bear market are fundamentally wrong. If the concept is wrong, the perception is wrong; if the perception is wrong, the behavior is wrong; if the behavior is wrong, making money becomes very difficult.
A rule in the cryptocurrency circle that I want to mention today is rapid rises and slow declines.
Bitcoin rising from 15,000 to 100,000 seems to be a very emotional process, all in an upward trend.
In fact, the truly explosive rise happens only a few days; most of the time, if you look closely, it’s just oscillation.
Once there is a period of oscillation, it will rapidly spike. If you are not always in the vehicle, you won't be able to keep up.
It's like riding in a car; if the vehicle suddenly accelerates, how can you possibly catch up? Unless you have been in the car all along.
The transition from the end of a bull market to the beginning of a bear market is even harder to perceive.
For example, now it's 80,000. Altcoins have dropped by 70%. Later, altcoins might continue to drop by 50%.
Why when the market drops, you see it but still won’t sell? You would rather be deeply trapped than escape.
This is because declines in the cryptocurrency market are very slow. The specific situation may be like this: you buy for 1 million, it rises to 3 million, and finally drops to 2.7 million. You don't want to sell, thinking of selling at 3 million. As a result, it rebounds to 2.8 million, and then continues to drop to 2.5 million. You think of selling at 2.8 million, and it directly drops to 2 million. You simply stop selling, and eventually, 2 million becomes 1 million, then rises to 1.5 million, and you can only pretend not to see it. 1 million becomes 500,000, rises to 700,000, and you are already helpless, thinking it’s better to just let it be. In this process, every rebound makes you hope to return to the original price, but the market is no longer the same market as it was then.
The reason the market does not drop rapidly is that if the big players sell all at once, they won’t get a good price. Their volume is too large, so they can only sell slowly. Each time there is a rebound, they take advantage of various favorable factors to sell. And what appears to be a catastrophic market is actually caused by a chain reaction; such opportunities are money-making opportunities, as there will be a rebound not long after a sharp drop. Many brave people will actually gamble on emotional money. Therefore, when it drops, it is very tormenting, especially for altcoins. If there is a sudden panic sell-off, you might really be scared and cut losses, but in fact, it rarely drops sharply; it’s always going up and down like this. For example, if the price is 10, and half a year later it suddenly becomes 1, that’s a 90% drop. During this process, it seems that something has covered your eyes, and you don’t know at all.
In fact, you just haven't undergone deliberate training, so your perception of the trend of price declines is not sharp. This is the fundamental reason why newcomers cannot make money in the first cycle.
In the second cycle, if you are still mixing with the counterfeit, then you have gained experience, and after selling counterfeit a few times, you are completely accustomed to cutting losses. Once the market begins to decline abnormally, you will be very vigilant. For example, if you made 10 times profit and it drops to 7 times profit, you will immediately exit. You won't be nostalgic about how much more you want to earn.
This cognitive process, when others tell you a few times, is not as effective as you using your money to cut losses yourself once. After cutting losses, you lose money; the first time it hurts, the second time you become numb, the third time you are calm, and the fourth time you are very relaxed. Then you have succeeded. If you make money on any altcoin later and want to numb yourself, you simply cannot do it. You will immediately cut losses and exit.
I have seen many people unwilling to sell after making profits, waiting to break even, and selling coins feels as painful as selling a son. This is all due to their lack of deliberate training.
The market operates according to human nature; it is all about human nature. People desire rapid increases, so the market will inadvertently rise rapidly. People wish for slower declines, wanting a rebound to come back, so it declines very slowly.
However, those who see through human nature are calm in the face of rapid rises and vigilant in the face of slow declines. At the slightest sign of trouble, they have already exited.
What remains are the ones taking over, and they still hope that their next wave of altcoins can rise again, but in fact, it has become impossible.
The market has already completed the transfer of wealth through a wave of trends. Moreover, this process is quiet. Only those who have been deliberately trained can feel it and earn money from the bubbles within.
