Everyone is waiting for a major market reversal; when will the bull market return?

This week, market sentiment has noticeably eased compared to the previous two weeks, with the impact of tariffs weakening and focus shifting to monetary policy. Although Trump has signaled that the U.S. and China will reach a 'very good agreement,' the Federal Reserve remains committed to a tightening stance and is not in a hurry to cut interest rates.

While the market has seen a rebound, it is still a structural repair rather than a trend reversal. Economic data indicates that the U.S. may be on the edge of a marginal downturn; if GDP data is poor or inflation persists, the divergence between the Federal Reserve and the market will intensify, and the risk market may face a 'chronic correction.'

In terms of BTC, on-chain data shows that investors' willingness to hold coins has increased, exchange inventory has decreased, and liquidity has declined, indicating structural resilience, but it is still affected by macro risks and has not yet confirmed the start of a new bull market.

Overall, the market is in a sensitive window period of 'waiting for economic data to materialize'; the GDP data to be released on April 30 may be a key turning point for the market.

The definition of a U.S. economic recession is two consecutive quarters of GDP decline, along with a rising unemployment rate, at least 4.3 or above.

In simple terms, the upcoming interest rate cuts will occur due to the Federal Reserve's expectations of recession rather than because of a strong economy and declining inflation. The former is more probable, which means the risk market could still face declines.

(Don't expect funds to seek refuge in BTC; this is actually a gamble. The funds that can flow into BTC are not substantial because funds are more likely to choose gold.) Therefore, the extent of this decline will also depend on the duration and severity of the recession. If it is only a mild and shallow recession.

After the risk market hits bottom during a recession, it will enter a phase of low-level fluctuations, gradually improving. At the same time, good policies will be released, such as lowering SLR, tax cuts, etc. Overall, a new wave of major price increases will begin to brew (this is the true major market reversal).