Preface: It is often said that when the tide goes out, you can see who has been swimming naked. In the wave of blockchain, we see the light of the future. Those WEB3 explorers heading for the stars and the sea are leading a profound transformation.
May every traveler: be less anxious about sudden wealth, and more patient about changing the world; calculate less in zero-sum games, and be wiser in co-building ecosystems; keep enthusiasm while maintaining rational judgment.
In this great social experiment, may we become friends of time, firmly hold onto the anchor of value, and be each other's guiding light. Stay away from the noise of speculative bubbles and delve into the depths of value creation, together writing the chapters that belong to the future.
Today's highlights:
Trump's suspension of tariff policies triggers market rebound
Trump announced a 90-day suspension of tariffs on certain countries, a decision reportedly made after closed-door discussions with the Secretary of Commerce and the Secretary of the Treasury, which surprised some White House officials. Following this news, the crypto market rebounded across the board, with Bitcoin (BTC) rising to $82,373, an increase of 8.99%, and Ethereum (ETH) climbing to $1,639, an increase of 14.07%.
Binance subsidiary obtains Bahrain license
A subsidiary of Binance has obtained a Bahrain payment service provider license, further expanding its compliant business layout in the Middle East, viewed as another advance towards mainstreaming the crypto industry.
Confirmation of the new SEC chairman in the U.S.
Pro-crypto Paul Atkins has been confirmed as the new chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), a personnel change that may bring a more favorable environment for cryptocurrency regulation.
Dogecoin ETF application and Ethereum options approved
21Shares has submitted an application for a spot Dogecoin ETF, and House of Doge will assist in its market promotion. At the same time, the SEC has approved options trading for spot Ethereum ETFs, marking further maturation of the crypto derivatives market.
Solana launches new features
Solana launches the 'Confidential Balances' feature, aimed at enhancing on-chain privacy protection and compliance, which may attract more institutional users into the ecosystem.
CPI forecast analysis and its impact on assets
Forecast background: Assuming that the U.S. CPI data in March 2025 falls within the 2.6%-2.8% range, slightly lower than market expectations, and the Federal Reserve has entered a rate-cutting cycle by the end of 2024. Combined with the policy impact during the early days of Trump's administration, here is an analysis of major asset classes and the crypto space.
Impact on traditional assets
Stock Market (S&P 500)
Forecast: CPI is expected to be in the range of 2.6%-2.8%, moderately below expectations, which will strengthen market confidence in the Federal Reserve's continued rate cuts. The S&P 500 may see moderate gains, with technology and consumer goods sectors likely leading the charge.
Logic: Lower interest rate expectations reduce corporate financing costs and boost valuations; Trump's tax cuts or infrastructure policies may further stimulate economic expectations.
Risk: If Trump's fiscal expansion exceeds expectations, pushing up U.S. Treasury yields, the stock market may face volatility.
Gold
Forecast: Mild inflation combined with rate cut expectations may cause gold prices to oscillate upwards in the range of $1,800-$2,000 per ounce.
Logic: A decline in real interest rates usually favors non-interest-bearing assets, and gold will benefit as an inflation hedge.
Risk: If the U.S. dollar strengthens due to other factors, gold may face pressure in the short term.
Dollar and U.S. Treasury yields
Forecast: The dollar may face pressure due to rate cut expectations, leaning weak in the short term. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may slightly retreat from current levels (assumed at around 4%) to the 3.8%-3.9% range.
Logic: Mild CPI data eases inflationary pressures, leading to market expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy.
Risk: Trump's fiscal expansion (such as tax cuts or infrastructure investments) may push yields higher, limiting the downside potential of the dollar.
Impact on the crypto space
Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies
Forecast: Mild CPI (2.6%-2.8%) and stable rate cut expectations may benefit Bitcoin under the logic of 'safe haven + liquidity easing', with moderate short-term gains.
Logic: A loose monetary environment is favorable for high-risk assets; if Trump fulfills his pro-crypto commitments early in his term (such as supporting Bitcoin as a strategic reserve or easing regulations), it may further stimulate market sentiment.
Risk: The crypto space is less sensitive to macro data, if U.S. Treasury yields rebound due to expectations of fiscal policy, or if the dollar strengthens in the short term, it may bring pullback pressure.
Scenario analysis
CPI below 2.6% (unexpected drop): Rate cut expectations surge, liquidity easing expectations boost sentiment in the crypto space, potentially triggering a short-term craze, and BTC may test recent highs.
CPI above 2.8% (inflationary pressures resurface): The market is concerned that the Federal Reserve may pause rate cuts, which could put short-term pressure on the crypto space and increase volatility.
Neutral scenario (2.6%-2.8%): Overall environment is neutral to slightly positive, the crypto space may rise moderately along with risk assets, but attention should be paid to the pace of Trump's policy implementation.
Summary and recommendations
Investment perspective: Mild CPI data (2.6%-2.8%) is slightly positive for the stock market, gold, and the crypto space, but the crypto space is more volatile, requiring attention to Trump's policy signals (such as crypto regulation or fiscal expansion).
Risk management: Beware of the impact of rising U.S. Treasury yields or a strengthening dollar on high-risk assets, recommend diversifying allocations and closely monitoring the Fed's subsequent statements and the actual policy direction of Trump's team.
BTC market analysis
Price and technical aspects
As of now, BTC is priced around $81,600, with the daily line closing with a 'large bullish candlestick', and trading volume significantly increased, indicating a clear strengthening of bullish forces. On-chain data shows that chips below $82,000 are accelerating concentration, initially forming a phase bottom support, and market confidence is somewhat restored. However, the conditions for a reversal have not yet matured, and the short-term trend is more indicative of a rebound.
On-chain data and institutional trends
The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of 1,667 units (about $127 million) yesterday, indicating that institutional sentiment remains cautious and selling pressure has not completely dissipated. Meanwhile, some players are shifting towards long-term holding, early holders are mostly adopting a wait-and-see attitude, and while market sentiment has improved, it still lacks sustained momentum.
Macroeconomic background
Trump announced adjustments to tariff policies, providing the market with a 90-day buffer period, which has improved risk appetite and boosted BTC and other asset rebounds. However, the latest Fed meeting minutes indicate low expectations for rate cuts, with May and June economic data becoming key variables. Macroeconomic uncertainties still limit BTC's upside potential.
Trading strategy
Based on current technicals and market sentiment, I personally recommend the following short position plan:
Entry range: $83,000-$84,000
Reason: This range is close to a short-term resistance level, combined with profit-taking pressure after increased trading volume, bullish momentum may weaken. Historical data shows that around $83,000-$84,000 was a previous volatile high point, posing both psychological and technical resistance.
Stop-loss point: Break above $85,000
Reason: If BTC strongly breaks through $85,000, it may indicate that bullish sentiment is further heating up, and the short-term trend is reversing, requiring shorts to exit decisively to control risk. Above $85,000 may open up new upside potential, and caution is advised against chasing highs.
Target: $79,800 (near key support for the day)
Reason: $79,800 is a phase 'critical position' in today's analysis, close to the downside retracement target of $82,000 support. If the short position runs smoothly, this position has strong technical support, and the probability of profit-taking for bears is high.
Risk assessment
Upside risk: If Trump's policies exceed expectations, or if on-chain capital suddenly returns, it could push BTC above $85,000, rendering the short position plan ineffective.
Downward support: If it falls below $80,000, panic selling may intensify, with the next support level between $78,000-$79,000.
Volatility warning: April shows clear event-driven characteristics, unexpected news (such as regulatory changes or macro data) may trigger severe fluctuations, it's recommended to strictly implement stop-loss strategies.
Comprehensive judgment
In the short term, BTC still has upside potential, but currently it is more of a rebound nature rather than a trend reversal. Investors are advised to take profits during rebounds and grasp the rhythm. The April market is not expected to rise unilaterally, and event-driven factors will dominate, with the market needing more catalysts (such as favorable policies or on-chain capital inflows) to break the deadlock.
