Yesterday, the large cookie rebounded from 74,500 to 83,500, mainly driven by Trump's suspension of the 90-day tariff increase on China. However, on-chain data shows that this rebound was driven by short-term speculative funds, with positions held for less than 155 days ("mouse warehouse") accounting for 38%. After the price rose to 83,000 (corresponding to the cost line), it triggered sell-offs to take profits, which will definitely put pressure on the market, and the market will correct back to the NASDAQ and the large cookie mouse warehouse entry position of 78,800, with strong support in the range of 75,000-78,000 below 80,000.

【Information to continue to pay attention to】

Bitcoin ETF: A net outflow of $238 million over three consecutive days, and institutional capital inflow will take time to verify.

Federal Reserve meeting minutes: If a rate cut signal is released on April 15, it may trigger a Bitcoin rebound to $85,000, but the risk of "buying the expectation and selling the fact" needs to be guarded against.

China-U.S. tariff negotiation window (April 20 - May 1). The rebound of Bitcoin and NASDAQ lacks fundamental support, driven more by liquidity repair. #特朗普暂停新关税