In 2025, the dollar and Bitcoin first showed divergence, leading to a sentiment in the market that due to gold continuously hitting new highs, profit-taking has made people hesitant to chase prices. Some believe that the next safe haven choice after fleeing the dollar will be Bitcoin.
However, the ideal is full, while reality is somewhat stark. Since entering 2025, the global market has been turbulent amid global trade, geopolitical conflicts, and stagflation risks. Gold prices have surged as if aided by divine intervention, breaking through the 3,400 USD/ounce mark, with its total market value firmly at the top of global assets. In contrast, Bitcoin has continued to weaken since hitting 109,228.60 USD at the beginning of the year, with its total market value sliding from third place during its peak to ninth place now. This contrast reveals a harsh reality: Bitcoin has never truly become 'digital gold'; its essence remains that of a speculative tool.
Gold is a shield, while Bitcoin is a spear. When the storm comes, the shield can bear the risk-hedging function without tightly grasping a spear that may break. In a bull market with excess liquidity, Bitcoin attracts speculative funds with high volatility, achieving an average daily turnover that is 17 times that of gold in 2024.
1. Macro Market Analysis
1. The monetary attributes of gold are returning, while the technological stock attributes of Bitcoin suppress recent COMEX gold open interest, which has surpassed 600,000 contracts (a historical high). Chinese insurance funds increased their gold holdings by 62 tons in a single month (approximately 2.3 billion USD), driving gold prices to break $3,385, creating a new 20-year high. Global central banks purchased 113 tons of gold in March (up 28% year-on-year), with the Russian central bank adding 37 tons in a single month, signaling an acceleration of 'de-dollarization'. The logic benefiting gold is that the USD index falling below 99 triggers a 'gold-US Treasury' arbitrage model, where every 1% drop in the dollar corresponds to a 1.2% increase in gold (with a 30-day effectiveness of 89%).
Bitcoin is deeply entrenched in the dilemma of becoming a tech stock, with its 180-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index rising to 0.43, enhancing the synchronization with the flow of tech funds. Currently, there is a divergence in the market's perception of 'digital gold', with institutions more inclined to classify it as a risk asset, leading to a divergence phenomenon where 'gold rises, Bitcoin falls' during times of differentiated risk aversion.
2. Technical Analysis
The rise of Bitcoin this morning is technical. Bitcoin has been consolidating for a week, wearing down market patience, and this morning it broke above a week-long resistance line, triggering some short stop losses and programmed trading, driving Bitcoin higher. The current rise can be seen as a C-wave rebound (beginning with the correction of the downtrend from 87,000 USD) rather than the start of a new upward trend. The weekly MACD remains below the zero line, without forming a bottom divergence signal. This consolidation lasted for seven trading days, coinciding with the release period of the Federal Reserve's March meeting minutes, during which the market completed a long-short handover in a policy vacuum.
The short-term support line (83,000 USD) acts as a psychological barrier. If it confirms a break below within three days, it may trigger programmed stop losses. Technically, the lower support line, formed in the short term (within a week), is likely to be breached under normal circumstances.
The current Bitcoin ETF market is transitioning from a stock game to an incremental reconstruction phase. Attention will be on the SEC hearing on April 25 regarding ETF regulatory frameworks, as well as the May Federal Reserve meeting on interest rate policy adjustments. If Bitcoin breaks above 90,000 USD and holds, it may accelerate ETF fund inflows; conversely, if it falls below 80,000 USD, systemic liquidity risks should be monitored.
