Tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, the CPI data for March in the United States will be released. This data does not seem very significant at the moment, as it does not include the additional tariffs beyond the 20% on China, not to mention the 10% basic tariff that only starts to take effect on April 2.
However, this CPI data can still be seen as a reference for the period before and after the full implementation of new tariffs. According to market expectations, the previous CPI was 2.8%, and the market expects it to be 2.6%, indicating that even with the 20% increase in tariffs on China, inflation in the U.S. is still on a downward trend. This serves as the best countermeasure for the Federal Reserve; if the CPI data rises after the full implementation of the new tariffs, they can place the blame on Trump.
From the current market predictions, broad inflation is declining, both year-on-year and month-on-month rates are decreasing, while core inflation's year-on-year rate is declining, and the month-on-month rate has seen a slight increase. Additionally, attention should be paid to the inflation data for used cars, rent, and services; lower inflation data is certainly better. However, the impact at present is indeed minimal.
