On April 2, 2025, after the European Commission President's proposal of "0% to 0% tariff" was rejected, the EU imposed a 25% tariff on many products from the USA, including almonds, orange juice, soybeans, steel, aluminum, tobacco, and yachts, in response to President Trump's tariffs. This move, although defensive in nature, is causing negative impacts on the global financial market.


Analysis: Escalating Trade War

The EU imposes a 25% tariff in response to the USA's tax levels (10-20% on European goods, according to USTR), escalating trade tensions. An EU spokesperson emphasized that the tariffs could be suspended if the USA agrees to fair negotiations, indicating that the EU wants to avoid a trade war. However, the lack of consensus within the EU – with Hungary opposing, and France, Ireland, Italy forcing the removal of Bourbon from the list after threatening a 200% tariff from Trump – shows a divide, weakening the EU's negotiating power.


The economic impact is significant: a 25% tariff increases the cost of USA goods in the EU, affecting sectors such as agriculture (almonds, soybeans) and industry (steel, aluminum). In contrast, the threat of a 200% tariff from $TRUMP on European wines (such as French wine) could cause significant damage to the EU wine industry, which exports $5 billion to the USA each year (according to the EU Trade Commission).


Negative Impact on Financial Markets


  1. Stock Market: Pessimistic Sentiment

    Trade tensions are increasing anxiety, pushing stock indexes down. The S&P 500 (USA) could drop 3-5% in the short term (according to Goldman Sachs), as companies like Nucor (steel) and Reynolds (aluminum) face cost pressures. In the EU, the DAX index (Germany) has dropped 2% in Q1/2025 and could fall another 3% if the trade war continues.


  2. Foreign Exchange Market: USD Rises, Euro Falls

    Tariffs#EU are increasing domestic USD demand in the USA, pushing USD prices up. The euro, which rose 4% against the USD in 2025 (according to ECB), could reverse and fall 2-3% in the coming weeks, affecting EU exporters.


  3. Crypto Market: Pressure on Risky Assets

    Pessimistic sentiment has spread to the crypto market, which has already decreased by 11.65% in market capitalization ($2.88 trillion) in Q1/2025. Bitcoin and Ethereum could drop an additional 5-7% in the short term, as investors shift to safe assets like gold ($3,167/oz on April 3, 2025, up 19%, source#FXCE ).


  4. Commodity Market: Prices Rise, Agriculture Suffers

    The 25% tariff increases the prices of steel and aluminum in the EU (estimated to rise 10%, according to LME), affecting the construction and automotive industries. The USA agriculture sector (almonds, soybeans) is losing the EU market, with estimated losses of $1 billion (according to USDA).



Conclusion: Short-Term Negative Impact

The EU imposing a 25% tariff on #USA is a strong countermeasure but escalates the trade war, putting pressure on financial markets. Stocks fall, USD rises, euro and crypto face pressure, while commodities like steel and agricultural products increase in price. If Trump does not negotiate, tensions will persist, pushing the market into a more unstable state. Investors need to be cautious and prioritize safe assets during this period.


Risk warning: A trade war could cause significant volatility in financial markets. Please consider carefully before investing.