In a surprising move, predictive markets such as Myriad Markets, Kalshi, and Polymarket have lowered their estimates for the likelihood of a recession in the United States, following President Donald Trump's announcement to suspend "reciprocal" tariffs on most countries.
This decision, described as a smart tactical step, has bolstered investor confidence in the stability of the U.S. economy in the short term and opened the door for more flexible trade negotiations with international partners.
⬇️ The decline in recession probabilities came as a sigh of relief for markets that have suffered from volatility and political uncertainty in recent months.
✳️ Economic indicators have begun to show positive signs, especially in the employment and manufacturing sectors, prompting many market participants to reassess their future expectations.
On the other hand, observers believe that this step may be temporary, contingent on the reactions of the benefiting countries, making the current situation fragile and requiring close monitoring.
⚖️ In the balance of politics and economics, it seems that Trump is betting on the factor of time and relative calm before taking more drastic measures.
The question remains open: Is this decline in recession probabilities the beginning of a real recovery? Or just a breather for a warrior in an ongoing economic battle?
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