U.S. tariffs on China have risen to 104%, and Chinese tariffs on the U.S. have risen to 84%. During the tariff war, how will Bitcoin perform?
Let's not waste words and get straight to the point.
One, the pricing power of Bitcoin is in the hands of the U.S.
No matter how unwilling, the pricing power of Bitcoin is currently in the hands of the U.S., which is a fact, so the price increase of Bitcoin is mainly influenced by U.S. economic policies.
Two, the most direct impact on Bitcoin's market is the U.S. interest rate cut.
The most direct impact on Bitcoin is the U.S. interest rate cut, and the probability of a rate cut in May is over 50% (reaching 54.8%), which seems to have gone unnoticed by everyone.
The logic here is that Trump's tariff policy has increased the risk of U.S. economic recession, and the best way to avoid a recession is to cut interest rates, so the probability of a rate cut in May has significantly increased.
Three, there is a serious divergence between the short-term market and the long-term market.
On-chain indicators show that short-term holders have been selling recently, reaching a recent peak.
On-chain indicators show long-term holders; they have not sold but are instead accumulating.
So, the market has shown divergence.
Four, the trump card of tariffs has been revealed, and the worst outcome is already apparent.
Both China and the U.S. have revealed their cards, and the market is pessimistic to the extreme, but as long as it does not escalate into a war, now is the worst time; any future negotiations could have a positive possibility.
Five, tomorrow the U.S. will release CPI data, which has a direct impact on the market.
Last week, the U.S. non-farm data was relatively good, and tomorrow it will show the inflation situation.
