“How long do we need to fight? I think we shouldn't make a decision. The past was decided by Truman, the future by Eisenhower, or by whatever president of the beautiful country will come. They will decide how long we fight, and we will keep fighting until complete victory.” #美国加征关税

We are now in a phase driven by emotions and expectations. Many people feel that interest rate cuts are a long way off. The hard data on inflation hasn't changed much in the past few months, but the published statistics, such as the consumer confidence index, have dropped significantly, indicating that everyone is very pessimistic! However, a couple of days ago, Trump also called on Powell for interest rate cuts, and it is still unknown what the Federal Reserve's stance is. Wall Street traders expect the probability of an interest rate cut in May has increased significantly! From the market perspective, the big pancake reaching 74,000 is also within the expected range, and it currently shows a certain degree of resilience!

At this stage, tariffs have gradually come into effect, and negative impacts are continuously being priced in. Trump mentioned in an executive order that the issue of tariffs can be negotiated. Currently, we can roughly divide the situation into three factions: one is the proactive negotiation faction, one is the negotiating while countering faction, and one is the firmly reciprocal counteraction faction, which has intensified market uncertainty. We are just starting to see the effects; the basic tax rate of 10% is set, and if negotiations occur, it will be based on the established tariffs to increase or decrease! Therefore, we patiently await the responses from various countries, as the related news sentiment will also be reflected on the K-line! However, what needs to be worried about now is whether a recession will occur. The second round of verbal sparring cannot yet intuitively detect fluctuations in corporate economics. If a recession does happen, the market has not yet fully priced it in, and we are currently in a step-by-step approach! However, it is certain that even a slight favorable factor should still highlight Bitcoin's value attribute! There will be strong rebounds in between, and as long as we manage expectations well, avoid prolonged battles, and not chase highs or panic sell, we can still make money by entering and exiting quickly to profit from rapid fluctuations. #风险回报比