Regarding the interpretation of Trump and his policies, we cannot overlook a key book: (Death by China). This book, co-authored by Peter Navarro and Greg Autry, was published in 2011. It can be said to perfectly explain Trump's governing logic, and this book largely determined Trump's decision to run for president from a business elite!
Peter Navarro is now a trade advisor directly appointed by Trump!
I. Central viewpoint
The book title "Death by China" itself indicates the author's stance: they believe that the manner of China's rise poses a "fatal" threat to the United States. This threat is not a traditional military invasion but rather a long-term and profound damage to the social structure, industrial base, and even national security of the United States through economic aggression, technology theft, and unfair trade.
II. Summary of main content
1. "Unfair economic competition"
The author believes China gains improper advantages in the global market through the following means:
Manipulating the RMB exchange rate to make export products cheaper in the international market;
National subsidies and preferential policies for state-owned enterprises;
Sweatshops and very low labor standards;
Ignoring environmental regulations to reduce costs;
Piracy and intellectual property infringement.
These methods have caused a significant loss of jobs in American manufacturing and have gradually weakened the economic foundation of the United States.
2. "Export of toxic products"
The book points out that a large number of products exported from China have serious safety issues, such as:
Toys with excessive lead content;
Fake milk powder and medicines;
Substandard electrical products; the author claims these products pose health and life threats to global consumers, especially Americans.
3. "Military expansion and cyber attacks"
The author believes China is currently through:
Expanding naval power;
Stirring up disputes in strategic areas such as the South China Sea;
Cyber espionage and attacks against the US; challenging America's global dominance and national security.
4. "Theft of technology and intellectual property"
China is accused of systematically stealing business secrets and technologies from American companies through:
Cyber hacker attacks;
Forcing technology transfer when joint venturing with foreign companies;
International students or visiting scholars stealing secrets; severely weakening America's technological advantage.
5. "Ideological threat of the red regime"
The author emphasizes that China is not a free market economy but an authoritarian state ruled by the Communist Party of China, which holds an antagonistic stance towards values such as democracy, human rights, and freedom of speech.
III. Policy recommendations
The author suggests that the US and other Western countries should:
Imposing higher tariffs on Chinese goods to correct trade imbalances;
Revitalize manufacturing and reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains;
Strengthen cybersecurity defenses;
Applying pressure on China's human rights issues;
Impose more restrictions on Chinese investment, especially in high-tech and critical infrastructure areas.
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It can be said that Trump followed the content of the book step by step, so those who thought the policies would end quickly and believed in Trump surrendering are absolutely wrong! Politics is important; it will influence your investment decisions!
Tariff issues will not yield immediate results, This is War. It implies a long-term bearish outlook for the capital markets, and long-term means more than six months! During this period, being long-term bearish is safe and effective! All rises are rebounds!
