#美国加征关税

The Impact of Tariffs on the Macroeconomy Transmitted to the Cryptocurrency Market

Inflation and Tightening Monetary Policy

Tariffs Drive Up Import Prices: Increased tariffs may exacerbate imported inflation (e.g., rising energy and raw material costs), forcing central banks like the Federal Reserve to maintain tight monetary policy (interest rate hikes/ balance sheet reduction).

Negative Impact on Cryptocurrency: Historical experience shows that risk assets (such as cryptocurrencies and stocks) often face pressure during interest rate hike cycles, with funds flowing into safe-haven assets like the US dollar and US Treasuries.

Fluctuations in US Dollar Credit

Tariffs Weaken Dollar Hegemony: Long-term abuse of tariffs may accelerate global de-dollarization, with some countries turning to local currency settlements or digital currencies, indirectly benefiting cryptocurrencies (e.g., Bitcoin is seen as a “digital gold” alternative to dollar reserves).

Short-term Volatility Intensifies: Trade friction triggered by tariffs will increase the volatility of the US dollar exchange rate, while cryptocurrency prices often have a negative correlation with the dollar index.

Supply Chain Disruptions and Economic Recession Risks

Declining Corporate Profits: Tariffs raise corporate costs, and if they trigger a global economic recession, the high-risk tolerant cryptocurrency market may face sell-offs.

Diverging Demand for Safe Havens: Some funds may flow into cryptocurrencies to hedge against fiat currency depreciation, but the majority of retail and institutional investors still tend to hold cash or gold.