#鲍威尔发言

On April 17, 2025, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech at the Chicago Economic Club, the key points are as follows:

1. Policy Stance and Stagflation Risk

Powell clearly stated that the Federal Reserve is not considering interest rate cuts or market intervention at this time, denying the existence of 'Fed put options'. He expressed concerns about 'stagflation' for the first time, pointing out that tariff policies may lead to a contradictory situation where inflation rises and economic slowdown coexist, putting the Fed's dual mandate (full employment and price stability) goals at odds.

2. Impact of Tariff Policies

- Inflation Risk: Powell warned that tariffs are 'very likely' to push up short-term inflation, and the effects may be more lasting. U.S. one-year inflation expectations from the University of Michigan soared to 6.7% in April, the highest since 1981.

- Economic Slowdown: The uncertainty of tariff policies may lead to reduced corporate investment and slower economic growth. The Fed will prioritize anchoring long-term inflation expectations to prevent one-time price increases from evolving into persistent inflation.

3. Market Reaction and Interest Rate Expectations

Following Powell's speech, market expectations for a rate cut in May dropped to below 15%, but the probability of a 25 basis point cut in June remains close to 60%. He emphasized the need to wait for policy effects to become clearer before adjusting monetary policy.

4. Independence of the Federal Reserve

In response to rumors of a 'leadership change' at the White House, Powell stressed that the independence of the Federal Reserve is legally protected, and the government has no right to dismiss officials without cause.

5. Other Key Points

- U.S. economic growth in the first quarter may slow, with core PCE inflation expectations raised to 2.8%.

- The Federal Reserve is slowing the pace of balance sheet reduction (QT) to respond to market turmoil.

In summary, Powell's remarks released hawkish signals, highlighting the Fed's policy dilemma between inflation and growth. For more specific details, further related reports can be consulted.