As the only major power in the world currently daring to face Trump's tariff provocation head-on and launch a reciprocal counterattack, we have finally acted—
On April 4th, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce announced: a countervailing tariff of 34% will be imposed, effective right after Trump's tariff policy is implemented, which is the day after tomorrow.
And Trump, facing Dongda’s strong counterattack of not retreating but advancing, has completely turned against them: last night, he publicly stated that if we do not cancel the new tariffs before tonight, he will retaliate with a new 50% tariff tomorrow.
This is no longer a 'game'; this is a showdown.
Both sides are in a tough spot; the stage has been set, and the show must go on.
Previously, Uncle San mentioned:
For Trump, tariffs are just a means, not an end.
His real goal is to maximize political leverage through economic friction.
This time, if it weren't for Dongda taking real action, Trump might have actually succeeded.
But the problem is, we are the largest and most comprehensive manufacturing country in the world.
In the face of national dignity, kneeling is not an option, nor can we give in.
The only path ahead is: to accompany each other to the end and fight with our backs against the wall.
Back to the cryptocurrency market.
The recent short-term rebound in the market is actually due to two reasons:
Before the tariff policy truly takes effect, the US and most countries have achieved a soft landing, leading to a relaxation of emotions;
Market liquidity is extremely weak; no one is willing to catch the falling knives, and the real panic chips have been mostly thrown in already.
But the question is: have we really hit the bottom? Is it time to buy the dip?
From on-chain data, my judgment is: at least, we are not far from the bottom.
Large on-chain holders (>1000 BTC) have already started to gradually increase their positions;
The new chips added on the Bitcoin chain have returned to a phase similar to last July-August, followed by a significant rise in November; smart money always lurks ahead of the market;
The technical bottom trend is beginning to show, and the funds for 'tentative buying' are gradually returning.
All this data indicates one thing:
The market has entered a bottom area, and what’s next is the speed of response to 'geopolitical' changes.
The problem lies here.
The real turning point in the market is not found in the K-line charts, but in the details of the tariff policy implementation in the coming days.
If both the US and China truly remain as unyielding as they are now, it will be a lose-lose game—
Then it won’t be a correction, but another massive tremor in the financial market.
The emotional rebound seen in the past two days will quickly evaporate, and panic will return.
And if there is any slight easing in policy, even if it is just verbal reassurance, the capital market will immediately react, launching a round of over-sold counterattacks.
Let’s take another look at the macro funding situation:
Yesterday, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $104 million, which is at a low level;
Last night, it was rumored that Trump would delay the implementation of tariffs, leading to a slight rebound in US stocks. Although this was later denied by official sources, there was no significant market correction, similar to the previous 'BlackRock ETF blunder'—
Although the rumors are false, the optimistic expectations are real.
This indicates that the market has entered an extremely sensitive range; just a small piece of good news can ignite emotions instantly.
From a technical perspective, both US stocks and Bitcoin are currently in a bottom-testing phase.
The low has appeared, the demand for rebounds is strong, and now we just need a detonating point.
Will this point be a turning point in the trade war?
No one can be certain.
But Uncle San’s advice is very clear:
If there really is an 'extreme negative' event causing a second bottom test, it would actually be a rare strategic buying opportunity.
At this point in the market, what we fear most is not a drop, but that you have already become afraid of falling.
While you are bearish on the world, large funds are already secretly increasing their positions.
This is not an ordinary short-term correction; this is a financial tactical showdown under geopolitical games.
And what we, the retail investors, can really do is to maintain rational judgment during the most emotional moments.
Don't panic, don't rush to escape; the real opportunity lies at the moment when everyone is afraid to act.
Sometimes, the downward panic is precisely the upward force accumulating.
If you dare to invest now, you will be smiling by the end of the year.
BTC: Market expectations are consistent with yesterday; large holders have a willingness to increase positions and have taken action, but there are no significant breakthrough changes in on-chain turnover, and macro funds are still in a wait-and-see state. Overall, although liquidity is scarce at present, the market is not lacking in funds for bottom fishing, and the final 48 hours will be decisive.
ETH: The 1500-point survival line has at least been recovered, briefly linked to Bitcoin.
The fear and greed index is at 24 today, showing a slight recovery.
In the end, stay away from leverage and stock up on physical goods!
