Although it can be confirmed that the short to medium-term bottom was yesterday's lowest at 74,500, it is unrealistic to expect a direct V-shaped recovery into a bull market; the market still needs more time to oscillate at the bottom. Last night, the rebound of Bitcoin was also hindered at 81,200. Bitcoin will oscillate in the range of 81,200 - 74,500, with short-term opportunities for entry. The key point for the long-term remains whether the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates, which could push Bitcoin above 100,000 or to new highs, while also needing to pay attention to the situation of the China-US competition.
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Macroeconomic aspect: The double-edged sword of interest rate cut expectations and geopolitical games.
Impact of delayed interest rate cuts: Currently, the market has only a 45% expectation for a rate cut in September. If the June CPI data exceeds expectations (currently predicted at 3.2%), it may further delay easing and suppress risk asset valuations.
Tariff impact: If the US imposes a 50% tariff on China, it may trigger a second shock to the global supply chain, and funds may shift to Bitcoin to hedge against the risk of fiat currency devaluation. Right now, the old guy is very stubborn.
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Technical aspect: Before the breakdown on February 24th, BTB had been strongly consolidating for nearly 100 days in the range of 89,256 - 109,588. Accordingly,$BTC After the breakdown on February 24th, BTC should also experience about 3 months / 100 days of weak consolidation below the breakdown point of 93,000. It has just been a month and a half since the breakdown on February 24th, and the consolidation time is insufficient. If calculated this way, the later market for BTB to break above 88,765 and return above 90,000 should occur sometime from late May to early June.
Short-term resistance at 81,000 - 82,000 range.
Short-term support at the range of 77,000 - 78,000 or below at 76,000 - 75,000 range. #BTC走势分析
