Could Bitcoin Become the 'Hardcore' Safe-Haven Asset in the Tariff Stick?
Against the backdrop of escalating global trade tensions, Bitcoin has shown unique market resilience. As the United States implements a new round of tariff policies and triggers countermeasures from multiple countries, traditional risk assets are generally under pressure, while Bitcoin demonstrates relatively stable performance.
Although Bitcoin has retreated from its January peak, its decline is significantly smaller than that of most altcoins and U.S. stock indices, and it even rose against the trend on certain trading days.
Market data shows that the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional assets is changing. Its 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 has risen from -0.32 in February to 0.47 in March, while its correlation with gold has dropped to -0.22, indicating that Bitcoin is forming an independent market positioning.
This characteristic, along with the continued accumulation behavior of long-term holders, is different from traditional risk or safe-haven assets, suggesting that even during periods of increased market volatility, confidence in holding Bitcoin remains strong.
The current macroeconomic environment exhibits characteristics of 'stagflation,' with inflationary pressures remaining high while growth expectations slow, creating a dilemma for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The market anticipates possible interest rate cuts four times within the year; if the liquidity environment turns towards easing, Bitcoin, which has deflationary properties, may benefit.
Historical experience shows that during periods of turmoil in the financial system, Bitcoin often exhibits safe-haven characteristics, as seen during the banking crisis in 2023.
In the short term, Bitcoin's price is still influenced by macro policies, but in the long run, against the backdrop of a restructuring global trade landscape, its value storage function as a non-sovereign asset is gaining more attention.
As friction costs in the traditional financial system rise, the comparative advantage of decentralized digital currencies may become more pronounced. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced at $80,296, with a 24-hour increase of 4.6%, and market participation remains active.
Conclusion:
At this critical juncture of reshaping the global trade landscape and shifting monetary policies, Bitcoin is undergoing an important test of its value positioning. The market performance during this tariff turmoil not only validates its differentiated characteristics from traditional assets but also signals the potential important role digital currencies may play in global asset allocation.
