避险资产
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Could Bitcoin Become the 'Hardcore' Safe-Haven Asset in the Tariff Stick?
Against the backdrop of escalating global trade tensions, Bitcoin has shown unique market resilience. As the United States implements a new round of tariff policies and triggers countermeasures from multiple countries, traditional risk assets are generally under pressure, while Bitcoin demonstrates relatively stable performance.
Although Bitcoin has retreated from its January peak, its decline is significantly smaller than that of most altcoins and U.S. stock indices, and it even rose against the trend on certain trading days.
Market data shows that the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional assets is changing. Its 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 has risen from -0.32 in February to 0.47 in March, while its correlation with gold has dropped to -0.22, indicating that Bitcoin is forming an independent market positioning.
This characteristic, along with the continued accumulation behavior of long-term holders, is different from traditional risk or safe-haven assets, suggesting that even during periods of increased market volatility, confidence in holding Bitcoin remains strong.
The current macroeconomic environment exhibits characteristics of 'stagflation,' with inflationary pressures remaining high while growth expectations slow, creating a dilemma for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The market anticipates possible interest rate cuts four times within the year; if the liquidity environment turns towards easing, Bitcoin, which has deflationary properties, may benefit.
Historical experience shows that during periods of turmoil in the financial system, Bitcoin often exhibits safe-haven characteristics, as seen during the banking crisis in 2023.
In the short term, Bitcoin's price is still influenced by macro policies, but in the long run, against the backdrop of a restructuring global trade landscape, its value storage function as a non-sovereign asset is gaining more attention.
As friction costs in the traditional financial system rise, the comparative advantage of decentralized digital currencies may become more pronounced. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced at $80,296, with a 24-hour increase of 4.6%, and market participation remains active.
Conclusion:
At this critical juncture of reshaping the global trade landscape and shifting monetary policies, Bitcoin is undergoing an important test of its value positioning. The market performance during this tariff turmoil not only validates its differentiated characteristics from traditional assets but also signals the potential important role digital currencies may play in global asset allocation.
#比特币行情 #全球宏观 #避险资产 #数字货币
Against the backdrop of escalating global trade tensions, Bitcoin has shown unique market resilience. As the United States implements a new round of tariff policies and triggers countermeasures from multiple countries, traditional risk assets are generally under pressure, while Bitcoin demonstrates relatively stable performance.
Although Bitcoin has retreated from its January peak, its decline is significantly smaller than that of most altcoins and U.S. stock indices, and it even rose against the trend on certain trading days.
Market data shows that the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional assets is changing. Its 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 has risen from -0.32 in February to 0.47 in March, while its correlation with gold has dropped to -0.22, indicating that Bitcoin is forming an independent market positioning.
This characteristic, along with the continued accumulation behavior of long-term holders, is different from traditional risk or safe-haven assets, suggesting that even during periods of increased market volatility, confidence in holding Bitcoin remains strong.
The current macroeconomic environment exhibits characteristics of 'stagflation,' with inflationary pressures remaining high while growth expectations slow, creating a dilemma for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The market anticipates possible interest rate cuts four times within the year; if the liquidity environment turns towards easing, Bitcoin, which has deflationary properties, may benefit.
Historical experience shows that during periods of turmoil in the financial system, Bitcoin often exhibits safe-haven characteristics, as seen during the banking crisis in 2023.
In the short term, Bitcoin's price is still influenced by macro policies, but in the long run, against the backdrop of a restructuring global trade landscape, its value storage function as a non-sovereign asset is gaining more attention.
As friction costs in the traditional financial system rise, the comparative advantage of decentralized digital currencies may become more pronounced. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced at $80,296, with a 24-hour increase of 4.6%, and market participation remains active.
Conclusion:
At this critical juncture of reshaping the global trade landscape and shifting monetary policies, Bitcoin is undergoing an important test of its value positioning. The market performance during this tariff turmoil not only validates its differentiated characteristics from traditional assets but also signals the potential important role digital currencies may play in global asset allocation.
#比特币行情 #全球宏观 #避险资产 #数字货币
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Bank of America: Gold tops the list of safe-haven assets, and Bitcoin's potential should not be underestimated
In the turmoil of financial markets, investors always look for the safest haven. While bonds are the favorite of conservatives, young people and technology geeks prefer Bitcoin. It is worth noting that despite the many challenges facing the global economy, gold is still regarded as the most reliable safe-haven asset by analysts at Bank of America.
On the other hand, Bank of America pointed out that gold has shown its stability regardless of interest rate changes. Although banks are currently cautious about the role of Bitcoin in the financial market, some leading US banks have begun to open their doors to Bitcoin, such as Bank of America's Merrill Lynch and Wells Fargo, which have begun to offer Bitcoin ETFs to qualified customers.
On the other hand, Bank of America pointed out that gold has shown its stability regardless of interest rate changes. Although banks are currently cautious about the role of Bitcoin in the financial market, some leading US banks have begun to open their doors to Bitcoin, such as Bank of America's Merrill Lynch and Wells Fargo, which have begun to offer Bitcoin ETFs to qualified customers.
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Golden Finance reported that Mitchnick, head of cryptocurrency business at BlackRock Group, believes that Bitcoin is already a "safe haven asset." If Bitcoin really becomes a safe haven asset, then what exactly does its technological attributes bring to it? So is Mitchnick calling for his business or is Bitcoin really starting to become a safe haven asset? Anyone who knows can tell me.
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The renewed surge in gold prices reflects a complex and multi-dimensional financial landscape.
On the one hand, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and large-scale gold purchases by global central banks have pushed up gold prices. This is not only a response to future economic uncertainty, but also reflects the desire for safe-haven assets .
On the other hand, this rise has also exposed some deep-seated problems in the current financial system, including concerns about continued inflation and reflections of geopolitical tensions.
For the Bitcoin market, the rise in gold prices is both a challenge and an opportunity. Some may view the rise in gold prices as a sign of the increasing appeal of safe-haven assets and turn to traditional safe-haven assets. However, for investors looking to hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may be more attractive because of their potential store of value capabilities.
In this era of uncertainty, the rise in gold prices is not only a reflection of market dynamics, but also a testimony to the deep intertwining of the global economic and political situation. In this case, viewing gold and Bitcoin as complementary rather than antagonistic assets could be a strategy to hedge against future uncertainty.
#金价 #比特币预测 #避险资产 #经济不确定性 #投资策略 $BTC
On the one hand, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and large-scale gold purchases by global central banks have pushed up gold prices. This is not only a response to future economic uncertainty, but also reflects the desire for safe-haven assets .
On the other hand, this rise has also exposed some deep-seated problems in the current financial system, including concerns about continued inflation and reflections of geopolitical tensions.
For the Bitcoin market, the rise in gold prices is both a challenge and an opportunity. Some may view the rise in gold prices as a sign of the increasing appeal of safe-haven assets and turn to traditional safe-haven assets. However, for investors looking to hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may be more attractive because of their potential store of value capabilities.
In this era of uncertainty, the rise in gold prices is not only a reflection of market dynamics, but also a testimony to the deep intertwining of the global economic and political situation. In this case, viewing gold and Bitcoin as complementary rather than antagonistic assets could be a strategy to hedge against future uncertainty.
#金价 #比特币预测 #避险资产 #经济不确定性 #投资策略 $BTC
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Gold hits a new high vs. Bitcoin rebounds, the battle for safe-haven assets enters a white-hot stage
Yesterday, the price of gold set a new record, soaring nearly $3,430 per ounce. This strong trend is mainly due to investors' dual concerns about the continued escalation of the Sino-US trade war and the weakness of the US dollar.
Peter Schiff, a well-known gold bull, recently spoke out, predicting that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates sharply, the price of gold is expected to break through $3,500. He also issued a severe warning that the United States may face the "worst recession since the Great Depression", and even a 50% stock market crash may not bottom out. These remarks have driven more funds into the gold market, strengthening its traditional safe-haven status.
Just as gold was shining, Bitcoin also quietly rebounded to $94,392 today, hitting a four-week high. However, Schiff scoffed at this. He brought out volatility data for comparison, saying that gold's annual volatility is usually 10%-20%, while Bitcoin often exceeds 50%, "not suitable as a reserve asset at all."
But the counterattack from the cryptocurrency supporters was even more sharp. For example, Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3, believes that the price of Bitcoin may reach $1 million sooner than his previous prediction of 2031. Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, recently spent another $555 million to increase its holdings by 6,556 BTC. Even Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, predicts that Bitcoin may reach $180,000 to $200,000 this year.
In summary, the competition between gold and Bitcoin as safe-haven assets is a reflection of investors' re-recognition of the traditional financial system. Gold has been firmly in the safe-haven throne with a thousand-year consensus, while Bitcoin has made a strong challenge with fixed supply and institutional endorsement. The struggle between the two is not only a battle of assets, but also a transfer and reshaping of market trust.
At the same time, some investors have begun to adopt a "dual-track parallel" strategy, allocating gold and Bitcoin at the same time to hedge different types of risks. This strategy reflects the market's general concern about the uncertainty of the traditional financial system and the pursuit of diversified asset allocation.
Which investment option do you prefer? Welcome to leave your opinions and investment logic in the comment area!
#黄金 #比特币 #避险资产 #经济衰退
Yesterday, the price of gold set a new record, soaring nearly $3,430 per ounce. This strong trend is mainly due to investors' dual concerns about the continued escalation of the Sino-US trade war and the weakness of the US dollar.
Peter Schiff, a well-known gold bull, recently spoke out, predicting that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates sharply, the price of gold is expected to break through $3,500. He also issued a severe warning that the United States may face the "worst recession since the Great Depression", and even a 50% stock market crash may not bottom out. These remarks have driven more funds into the gold market, strengthening its traditional safe-haven status.
Just as gold was shining, Bitcoin also quietly rebounded to $94,392 today, hitting a four-week high. However, Schiff scoffed at this. He brought out volatility data for comparison, saying that gold's annual volatility is usually 10%-20%, while Bitcoin often exceeds 50%, "not suitable as a reserve asset at all."
But the counterattack from the cryptocurrency supporters was even more sharp. For example, Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3, believes that the price of Bitcoin may reach $1 million sooner than his previous prediction of 2031. Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, recently spent another $555 million to increase its holdings by 6,556 BTC. Even Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, predicts that Bitcoin may reach $180,000 to $200,000 this year.
In summary, the competition between gold and Bitcoin as safe-haven assets is a reflection of investors' re-recognition of the traditional financial system. Gold has been firmly in the safe-haven throne with a thousand-year consensus, while Bitcoin has made a strong challenge with fixed supply and institutional endorsement. The struggle between the two is not only a battle of assets, but also a transfer and reshaping of market trust.
At the same time, some investors have begun to adopt a "dual-track parallel" strategy, allocating gold and Bitcoin at the same time to hedge different types of risks. This strategy reflects the market's general concern about the uncertainty of the traditional financial system and the pursuit of diversified asset allocation.
Which investment option do you prefer? Welcome to leave your opinions and investment logic in the comment area!
#黄金 #比特币 #避险资产 #经济衰退
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On April 10, #中国反制征收美国同等关税 , a 34% tariff will be officially imposed on all American products.
This is no longer friction; it has escalated to a direct confrontation.
Here are the key impacts on the cryptocurrency market:
1️⃣ Global economic tensions + increased inflation pressure
Risk assets may initially drop; $BTC and $ETH might follow suit in the coming days.
2️⃣ As risk aversion rises, BTC may benefit in the long term
If traditional finance continues to face issues, crypto assets like these 'non-sovereign assets' will be highlighted again.
3️⃣ Increased use of stablecoins for cross-border transactions
Those engaged in foreign trade and transfers may prefer using USDT and USDC.
4️⃣ Mining and hardware projects should be cautious of pressure
Chips and mining machines may be affected, with rising costs and tight supply being highly probable.
Ultimately, it's still that saying:
Short-term fluctuations, long-term faith. Keep your ammunition ready, don't act rashly. #宏观经济 #BTC #加密货币 #避险资产
This is no longer friction; it has escalated to a direct confrontation.
Here are the key impacts on the cryptocurrency market:
1️⃣ Global economic tensions + increased inflation pressure
Risk assets may initially drop; $BTC and $ETH might follow suit in the coming days.
2️⃣ As risk aversion rises, BTC may benefit in the long term
If traditional finance continues to face issues, crypto assets like these 'non-sovereign assets' will be highlighted again.
3️⃣ Increased use of stablecoins for cross-border transactions
Those engaged in foreign trade and transfers may prefer using USDT and USDC.
4️⃣ Mining and hardware projects should be cautious of pressure
Chips and mining machines may be affected, with rising costs and tight supply being highly probable.
Ultimately, it's still that saying:
Short-term fluctuations, long-term faith. Keep your ammunition ready, don't act rashly. #宏观经济 #BTC #加密货币 #避险资产
#美国加征关税 I can only say: The cryptocurrency market and the global economy both need to shake things up.
Let me briefly highlight a few key points for those who don't have time to read long analyses:
1️⃣ The global economy may become increasingly tight.
As tariffs increase, import costs rise, living expenses go up, but wages do not increase, leading to bad inflation.
The trade chain is also getting stuck, causing the global economy to come to a halt, which is not friendly for the stock market, consumption, or even employment.
2️⃣ The short-term outlook for cryptocurrencies is not friendly.
Once the market starts to panic, the first assets to flee are high-risk ones, and cryptocurrencies will definitely be hit hard.
Especially BTC and ETH, which are becoming increasingly correlated with tech stocks; if the NASDAQ drops, they may drop as well.
3️⃣ However, the long-term outlook may be opposite.
If this kind of policy persists, with the dollar's hegemony shaking and inflation spiraling out of control, BTC might actually be regarded as digital gold and held tightly.
In particular, stablecoins might see an increase in demand for cross-border payments, thus benefiting.
4️⃣ Miners need to be cautious.
Tariffs affect hardware imports; for example, if Chinese mining machines are taxed, costs will immediately rise, cutting mining profits directly.
Additionally, with potential regulatory tightening, both miners and project teams need to be more vigilant.
Personally, I feel that this kind of news will have a short-term impact in terms of emotional fluctuations, while the long-term effects depend on the implementation of policies and how various countries respond.
Do you think this wave of tariff turmoil will turn $BTC back into a real safe-haven asset? Let's discuss.
#比特币 #关税 #宏观经济 #币圈避险
Let me briefly highlight a few key points for those who don't have time to read long analyses:
1️⃣ The global economy may become increasingly tight.
As tariffs increase, import costs rise, living expenses go up, but wages do not increase, leading to bad inflation.
The trade chain is also getting stuck, causing the global economy to come to a halt, which is not friendly for the stock market, consumption, or even employment.
2️⃣ The short-term outlook for cryptocurrencies is not friendly.
Once the market starts to panic, the first assets to flee are high-risk ones, and cryptocurrencies will definitely be hit hard.
Especially BTC and ETH, which are becoming increasingly correlated with tech stocks; if the NASDAQ drops, they may drop as well.
3️⃣ However, the long-term outlook may be opposite.
If this kind of policy persists, with the dollar's hegemony shaking and inflation spiraling out of control, BTC might actually be regarded as digital gold and held tightly.
In particular, stablecoins might see an increase in demand for cross-border payments, thus benefiting.
4️⃣ Miners need to be cautious.
Tariffs affect hardware imports; for example, if Chinese mining machines are taxed, costs will immediately rise, cutting mining profits directly.
Additionally, with potential regulatory tightening, both miners and project teams need to be more vigilant.
Personally, I feel that this kind of news will have a short-term impact in terms of emotional fluctuations, while the long-term effects depend on the implementation of policies and how various countries respond.
Do you think this wave of tariff turmoil will turn $BTC back into a real safe-haven asset? Let's discuss.
#比特币 #关税 #宏观经济 #币圈避险
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