The proportion of BTC supply in a loss state is increasing, with $105,000 as a key support level
According to an analysis post provided by Sentora through on-chain data, approximately 7.9% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin is currently in a loss state, indicating significant accumulation of chips within the price range of $121,000 to the current price.
Analysts predict that if the market further retraces, the $105,000 area could become a key support level. This judgment is based on historical on-chain data showing that around 900,000 Bitcoins (approximately 4.5% of the total circulating supply) have formed a dense trading area near this price level.
In simple terms, the current Bitcoin market presents several key features worth noting for investors. Firstly, the 7.9% of circulating supply in a loss state is approaching the warning level for short-term adjustments. Historical experience shows that when the proportion of loss chips exceeds 15%, the market often faces greater retracement pressure.
Secondly, from the cost structure analysis, it can be seen that a large amount of profit chips has accumulated above $121,000, and if these chips begin to loosen, it may bring additional selling pressure; while below $105,000, a clear “value pit” has formed. Since this area has accumulated a large amount of buying demand in the early stages, it may constitute a key support point.
This market structure is quite similar to the situation in the fourth quarter of 2024, when the $100,000 price support area successfully withstood three rounds of selling pressure and demonstrated strong market acceptance ability. This historical reference also provides a valuable reference coordinate for our current market assessment.
In summary, from this chip structure distribution characteristic, it can be seen that the $105,000 area has become Bitcoin's current key technical defense line. If the price retraces to this area, it may attract new funds to step in to absorb the selling pressure, thereby forming effective price support. However, it is important to note that in extreme market conditions, the support level may also be briefly breached, and investors still need to make comprehensive judgments based on real-time trading volume and market sentiment.
Do you think the support level of $105,000 can hold effectively in the current market environment? In light of the current nearly 8% loss ratio of Bitcoin chips, do you tend to see it as a buying opportunity or a risk signal?
