No one is fooled, everyone has bought at the lowest point. The current situation is that we should not be overly optimistic. The main focus moving forward is whether Trump will yield, but this is just a short-term logic. The underlying medium-term logic is the impossible triangle of America's inflation, growth, and debt. There is a high probability of entering a contraction cycle similar to what we have seen domestically in the past few years, and risk assets are unlikely to perform well. So although we have seen an increase in the short term, I remain cautious in the medium term. Let's first observe optimism over these two weeks, and then re-evaluate later. $BTC

At BTC75000, all ETH and meme short positions have been closed, and long BTC positions have been opened instead, with a planned period of 1-2 weeks, aiming to close within two weeks (mainly due to sentiment bottoming out, continued liquidity risk is less likely, US stocks rebounding, uncertainty in Trump's policy reversal, and uncertainty in the monetary policy meeting).

In the medium term, I still remain bearish on crypto, as the issues of US debt, inflation, and growth cannot be resolved simultaneously, and US stocks are expected to continue to fall in the medium term.

Action: Gradually build positions in BTC on dips, and sell after a small rebound in US stocks within 2 weeks. Continue to expect a decline in the medium term.
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