📉 Cryptocurrency Bull and Bear Cycle Brief Analysis & Action Guide 📈
🔄 Cycle Phases (2024-2026)
1️⃣ 2024 Q4-2025 Q1: Early Bull Market
• Signal: Bitcoin breaks through $30k, halving expectations fermenting.
• Action: Dollar-cost averaging into BTC/ETH, focus on Layer2 (Arbitrum) and spot ETF concepts.
2️⃣ 2025 Q2-Q3: Mid Bull Market
• Signal: Altcoins surge, leveraged trading spikes.
• Action: Reduce positions in altcoins, hold leading coins (BNB, SOL), hedge risks.
3️⃣ 2025 Q4-2026 Q1: Late Bull Market
• Signal: Bitcoin peaks and retreats, retail FOMO.
• Action: Take profits in batches, cash is king, allocate to safe-haven assets (USDC, gold tokens).
4️⃣ 2026 Q2-Q3: Early Bear Market
• Signal: BTC drops below $40k, exchanges face run on deposits.
• Action: Wait for the bottom (15k-20k), dollar-cost average into core assets.
💡 Investment Principles
✅ Never be fully invested: Keep cash in bull markets, prepare ammunition in bear markets.
✅ Stay away from leverage: Especially in bear markets, liquidation is catastrophic.
✅ Only follow the classics: BTC, ETH are resilient, altcoins are for quick in-and-out trades.
✅ Keep an eye on macro: Fed rate cuts = go signal, rate hikes = turn off the lights and eat noodles.
⚠️ Risk Warnings
❗ Policy Black Swan: SEC regulation, exchange collapses (like FTX 2.0).
❗ Liquidity Drying Up: US Treasury yields spike, funds flee risk assets.
❗ Technical Traps: Halving benefits fully priced in, altcoins face zeroing out.
👉 Action: Dollar-cost average with spare money, control your hands; in bear markets, pick up the dead, don't get too carried away!
