On one hand, the tariff policy has increased the risk of economic recession in the United States (Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a recession in the U.S. in 12 months from 35% to 45%). On the other hand, it has accelerated the likelihood of interest rate cuts to avoid a recession (what was originally expected to be two interest rate cuts in 2025 may turn into three). Therefore, fortune and misfortune are interdependent, making the situation very complex.