89444274462 Rational Analysis

After Bitcoin broke below the previous low of 76660, there is now a vacuum zone below, with no dense areas in the short to medium term, leading many people to see prices starting with 6 or 5. In reality, apart from institutional holdings being at a relatively low price, both whales and retail investors are currently in a state of loss. Long-term holdings do not constitute selling pressure, while short-term trapped positions are above 81000. Additionally, the bullish liquidity has been completely cleared, and continuing to sell off is equivalent to cutting losses.

At the current position, it is more about seeking opportunities rather than excessive panic; such opportunities are rare. The last time there was a sense of this vacuum zone was in September 2023, and subsequently, over the next three months, Bitcoin doubled to reach 50,000.

Currently, due to the lack of an independent narrative, Bitcoin is similar to the tech sector of the US stock market. Whether it can rise in the short term depends on the peaceful resolution of tariff issues, and in the medium term, on the Federal Reserve continuing to cut interest rates. Overall, it follows the US stock market, and last week's performance was slightly stronger than that of the US stock market, indicating demand. Combined with the situation of Bitcoin itself, if the US stock market rebounds slightly, Bitcoin may quickly rebound above 80,000.

In specific operations, after breaking below 81000, the structure deteriorates. Currently, any bottom-fishing is against the trend, and the temptation to bottom-fish comes from high odds, but corresponds to a low win rate, making it difficult to catch the bottom in one go. Therefore, it is necessary to use some techniques to increase certainty.

For the medium to long term:

1. Choose core coins, with Bitcoin being the main one, along with the top market cap coins such as Ethereum, XRP, SOL, SUI, and also platform tokens like BNB and OKB.

2. Gradually allocate in the spot market, which is the most controllable way to operate with risk.

For the medium to short term:

The market has experienced a period of gradual decline followed by a sharp drop. Under normal circumstances, it is likely to be followed by consolidation. If consolidation occurs, pay attention to breakout and retest opportunities. Entry must wait for a strengthening pattern, such as the short-term moving averages turning up, capital inflow, and in the short term, it must be trend-following. At the same time, pay attention to position control and strict hard stop-loss, with single capital not exceeding 8%.